Moving in with your partner? Talking about these 3 things first can smooth the way, according to a couples therapist

Before the boxes are packed, you should square your expectations. Tara Moore/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Kristina S. Brown, Adler University

Partners who live together typically come to this significant place in their relationship in one of two ways – what some clinicians call “sliding versus deciding.” Moving in together can just kind of happen without too much thought, or it can be carefully considered and planned.

Some couples may see living together as a test for future marriage. For others, marriage is not a goal, so living together may be the ultimate statement of their commitment.

I have been a relationship therapist and researcher for over 25 years, specializing in intimate relationships. Based on my research and clinical experience, I recommend that couples discuss the significance of sharing a home before they merge households. Doing so gives partners an opportunity to set realistic expectations, negotiate household roles and practice their communication.

My colleagues and I developed a list of topics partners should talk about before moving in together – or even after, if the moving boxes are already unpacked. These topics are organized into three main categories.

1. Expectations

Why do you want to move in together? What is the purpose? Will it lead to marriage? Many relationships struggle with the intersection of reality and expectation.

Clients tell me that their expectations of living together are often based on what they grew up with – for example, “My mom had dinner on the table every evening at 6 p.m. I expect the same of my partner.” Expectations also extend to intimacy, such as, “Now that we are sharing a bed, we can have sex all the time.”

Conversations about what this stage of commitment means for the relationship and how it affects each individual’s identity are part of this negotiation. Is moving in together “practice” for marriage? Are we moving into one of our current places, or finding a new home together? How will we split up the household finances? How frequently will we be intimate? Will we get a pet?

Understanding what will and won’t change helps smooth this transition, making space for conversations about the nitty-gritty of living together.

2. Household roles

As people launch from their childhood homes, the household rules they grew up with – both the ones they liked and the ones they hated – tend to come along for the ride.

Decide who will do what. lorenzoantonucci/iStock via Getty Images Plus

It’s important for couples to talk about how they plan to handle mundane day-to-day tasks, such as dishes, trash, cooking, cleaning and so on. My colleagues and I recommend couples start these conversations by stating their strengths. If you like grocery shopping but hate cooking, first offer to do what you prefer. Talk through the different needs of your household – including finances, pets, kids, cars and so on – and try to find some balance in the division of responsibilities.

During these negotiations, remember to keep in mind each person’s obligations outside of the home. For example, if one person stays at home or has summers off, take that into consideration in determining balance.

I once worked with a couple where one partner wanted her spouse “to be less of an asshole.” When we dug a bit deeper, what she really wanted was for him to vacuum. Talking further, they began to understand that their household rules were neither balanced nor accommodating of the ebbs and flows of their lifestyle, family needs and professional demands.

3. Communication

Perhaps the most important conversation to have is actually about communication. How responsive do I expect my partner to be when I text them? How do I tell them I really need alone time? When can I talk to them about my changing needs?

This can be an excellent time to reach out to a couple and family therapist to help negotiate some of these issues. Many times, the hurtful comments people make to one another are really about expectations, fear and the anxiety of the unknown. Talking about the best way to recognize and meet your partner’s needs and concerns invites collaboration and unity, which ultimately strengthens the relationship.

Good communication is key to healthy long-term relationships. JGI/Tom Grill/Tetra Images via Getty Images

People and relationships change over time. Everyone is affected by their own life experiences, one of which can be moving in with a partner. Communication and empathy are key as expectations shift and evolve. This continues to be true as couples hit transitions throughout their lives.

Big things like moving, graduating, getting a new job and having children, as well as little things, like choosing which TV shows to watch or trying out a new recipe, are important topics to have conversations about. Developing good communication skills can serve as the foundation for navigating the trials and tribulations relationships bring.

And it’s never too late to start having these conversations – even if you’re already living together.

Kristina S. Brown, Professor and Chair of Couple and Family Therapy, Adler University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Watermarking ChatGPT, DALL-E and other generative AIs could help protect against fraud and misinformation

Images generated by AI systems, like these fake photos of Donald Trump being arrested (he hasn’t been arrested), can be a dangerous source of misinformation. AP Photo/J. David Ake

Hany Farid, University of California, Berkeley

Shortly after rumors leaked of former President Donald Trump’s impending indictment, images purporting to show his arrest appeared online. These images looked like news photos, but they were fake. They were created by a generative artificial intelligence system.

Generative AI, in the form of image generators like DALL-E, Midjourney and Stable Diffusion, and text generators like Bard, ChatGPT, Chinchilla and LLaMA, has exploded in the public sphere. By combining clever machine-learning algorithms with billions of pieces of human-generated content, these systems can do anything from create an eerily realistic image from a caption, synthesize a speech in President Joe Biden’s voice, replace one person’s likeness with another in a video, or write a coherent 800-word op-ed from a title prompt.

Even in these early days, generative AI is capable of creating highly realistic content. My colleague Sophie Nightingale and I found that the average person is unable to reliably distinguish an image of a real person from an AI-generated person. Although audio and video have not yet fully passed through the uncanny valley – images or models of people that are unsettling because they are close to but not quite realistic – they are likely to soon. When this happens, and it is all but guaranteed to, it will become increasingly easier to distort reality.

In this new world, it will be a snap to generate a video of a CEO saying her company’s profits are down 20%, which could lead to billions in market-share loss, or to generate a video of a world leader threatening military action, which could trigger a geopolitical crisis, or to insert the likeness of anyone into a sexually explicit video.

The technology to make fake videos of real people is becoming increasingly available.

Advances in generative AI will soon mean that fake but visually convincing content will proliferate online, leading to an even messier information ecosystem. A secondary consequence is that detractors will be able to easily dismiss as fake actual video evidence of everything from police violence and human rights violations to a world leader burning top-secret documents.

As society stares down the barrel of what is almost certainly just the beginning of these advances in generative AI, there are reasonable and technologically feasible interventions that can be used to help mitigate these abuses. As a computer scientist who specializes in image forensics, I believe that a key method is watermarking.

Watermarks

There is a long history of marking documents and other items to prove their authenticity, indicate ownership and counter counterfeiting. Today, Getty Images, a massive image archive, adds a visible watermark to all digital images in their catalog. This allows customers to freely browse images while protecting Getty’s assets.

Imperceptible digital watermarks are also used for digital rights management. A watermark can be added to a digital image by, for example, tweaking every 10th image pixel so that its color (typically a number in the range 0 to 255) is even-valued. Because this pixel tweaking is so minor, the watermark is imperceptible. And, because this periodic pattern is unlikely to occur naturally, and can easily be verified, it can be used to verify an image’s provenance.

Even medium-resolution images contain millions of pixels, which means that additional information can be embedded into the watermark, including a unique identifier that encodes the generating software and a unique user ID. This same type of imperceptible watermark can be applied to audio and video.

The ideal watermark is one that is imperceptible and also resilient to simple manipulations like cropping, resizing, color adjustment and converting digital formats. Although the pixel color watermark example is not resilient because the color values can be changed, many watermarking strategies have been proposed that are robust – though not impervious – to attempts to remove them.

Watermarking and AI

These watermarks can be baked into the generative AI systems by watermarking all the training data, after which the generated content will contain the same watermark. This baked-in watermark is attractive because it means that generative AI tools can be open-sourced – as the image generator Stable Diffusion is – without concerns that a watermarking process could be removed from the image generator’s software. Stable Diffusion has a watermarking function, but because it’s open source, anyone can simply remove that part of the code.

OpenAI is experimenting with a system to watermark ChatGPT’s creations. Characters in a paragraph cannot, of course, be tweaked like a pixel value, so text watermarking takes on a different form.

Text-based generative AI is based on producing the next most-reasonable word in a sentence. For example, starting with the sentence fragment “an AI system can…,” ChatGPT will predict that the next word should be “learn,” “predict” or “understand.” Associated with each of these words is a probability corresponding to the likelihood of each word appearing next in the sentence. ChatGPT learned these probabilities from the large body of text it was trained on.

Generated text can be watermarked by secretly tagging a subset of words and then biasing the selection of a word to be a synonymous tagged word. For example, the tagged word “comprehend” can be used instead of “understand.” By periodically biasing word selection in this way, a body of text is watermarked based on a particular distribution of tagged words. This approach won’t work for short tweets but is generally effective with text of 800 or more words depending on the specific watermark details.

Generative AI systems can, and I believe should, watermark all their content, allowing for easier downstream identification and, if necessary, intervention. If the industry won’t do this voluntarily, lawmakers could pass regulation to enforce this rule. Unscrupulous people will, of course, not comply with these standards. But, if the major online gatekeepers – Apple and Google app stores, Amazon, Google, Microsoft cloud services and GitHub – enforce these rules by banning noncompliant software, the harm will be significantly reduced.

Signing authentic content

Tackling the problem from the other end, a similar approach could be adopted to authenticate original audiovisual recordings at the point of capture. A specialized camera app could cryptographically sign the recorded content as it’s recorded. There is no way to tamper with this signature without leaving evidence of the attempt. The signature is then stored on a centralized list of trusted signatures.

Although not applicable to text, audiovisual content can then be verified as human-generated. The Coalition for Content Provenance and Authentication (C2PA), a collaborative effort to create a standard for authenticating media, recently released an open specification to support this approach. With major institutions including Adobe, Microsoft, Intel, BBC and many others joining this effort, the C2PA is well positioned to produce effective and widely deployed authentication technology.

The combined signing and watermarking of human-generated and AI-generated content will not prevent all forms of abuse, but it will provide some measure of protection. Any safeguards will have to be continually adapted and refined as adversaries find novel ways to weaponize the latest technologies.

In the same way that society has been fighting a decadeslong battle against other cyber threats like spam, malware and phishing, we should prepare ourselves for an equally protracted battle to defend against various forms of abuse perpetrated using generative AI.

Hany Farid, Professor of Computer Science, University of California, Berkeley

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Russia wants military aid from China – here’s why this deal could help China, too

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, left, met with his then-Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in March 2022 in Huangshan. STR/CCTV/AFP via Getty Images

Michael A. Allen, Boise State University

China is considering sending weapons, ammunition and drones to Russia, according to information the Biden administration declassified at the end of February 2023.

China’s military aid would directly support Russia’s war in Ukraine.

This public disclosure, emerging less than a month after the U.S. navy shot down a Chinese balloon that allegedly was being used for spying purposes, further heightened existing tensions between the U.S. and China.

It also comes as Russia is facing mounting costs in its war on Ukraine – both financial and in human lives.

These setbacks have pushed Russia to seek help where the government can find it.

Russia has tried to secure weapons and other military support from allies such as North Korea and neighboring country Belarus. Russia has also turned to neutral countries like India and China to whom it can sell its oil and gas and bring in more money.

China has not publicly announced a decision to give military aid to Russia.

I am a scholar of international relations whose work focuses on the increasing competition between the U.S. and China. Based on my research, I’m certain Russia would welcome any assistance China would offer. China’s decision about whether to get involved in the Ukraine war will be carefully calculated, factoring in potential long-term benefits, risks and the influence of Western powers.

But I think that China’s choice in supporting Russia or not chiefly comes down to two considerations: how the Ukraine conflict will affect China’s overall growth in world politics, and its interest in invading Taiwan.

Russia’s Sergei Lavrov sits across the table from China’s Qin Gang in March 2023 while in New Delhi for a meeting of foreign ministers from the world’s largest industrialized and developing nations. Russian Foreign Ministry Press/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

China’s official stance

Massive military aid to a struggling army is not cheap. The U.S. spent over US$75 billion on aid to Ukraine in 2022. But despite the costs of war, China is considering supplying Russia military hardware for a few reasons.

Economically, China’s interests in Russia include money, energy and trade opportunities.

During the Cold War, the U.S. successfully drove a wedge between the two countries. However, after the Cold War, Russia and China grew closer and became economically interconnected.

Since Russia first launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, China has appeared to maintain a “pro-Russia” neutrality. That is, China is officially neutral and not contributing to the conflict, but its government officials are still echoing Russia’s war narrative and propaganda, while ignoring what Ukraine is telling the world.

China has criticized Western interference in the war. It has also proposed a peace plan for the conflict – which does not actually call for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine.

So far, China has stopped short of sending military aid to Russia. Reversing course would be a substantive departure from China’s previous policy of official neutrality.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reviews a military guard with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in 2018. Greg Baker/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

A common adversary

Russian success in Ukraine would align with China’s goals of reshaping global politics and power, and could help facilitate China’s own rise as an economic and military leader.

In February 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Winter Olympics in Beijing. They issued a joint document calling for reshaping global politics. The lengthy statement details shared values and a vision for a world without the United States as a major leader, and where China and Russia gain more control and influence.

China’s and Russia’s foreign ministers met on March 2, 2023, and China’s government released a statement that reiterated this point, saying that the two countries “have maintained sound and steady development, setting a new paradigm for a new type of major-country relationship.”

Political scientists and human rights scholars do not consider Russia or China to be democracies or politically free. But both countries have lauded their own traditions of democracy and say they stand opposed to a world where the U.S. asserts its version of democracy and human rights as the only option.

Chinese military helicopters fly nearby Taiwan in August 2022. Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images

The Taiwan factor

Another reason China may want Russia to succeed in Ukraine is that a Russian victory would give China more external support in any plans to overtake Taiwan or other territories. Taiwan is an island off the coast of China that claims independence, but China maintains it is simply a breakaway province that it wants to regain control over.

If Russia had won the Ukraine war as quickly as it initially planned, this might have paved the way for China to attempt a similar invasion of Taiwan. But there was no quick victory.

Yet a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war may present a new kind of opportunity for China in Taiwan by diverting U.S. money, military resources and attention away from the island.

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang argued on March 7, 2023, that because the U.S. sells weapons to Taiwan, this justifies China selling weapons to Russia.

Some critics have noted that U.S. aid to Ukraine makes it harder for the U.S. to justify defending Taiwan if China attempts to overtake it.

While China invading Taiwan appears unlikely in the short term – and some experts say such a move would be disastrous for China – both the U.S. and China have a vested interest in the fate of Taiwan and the surrounding region.

The U.S. and China have made recent moves to establish more military presence in the South China Sea region. China has increased its display of military force surrounding Taiwan. The United States recently announced it would deploy troops and military equipment in the Philippines, a strategic military base that is close to Taiwan.

Western pressure

In the past few months, the Biden administration and other Western powers have warned China that it should not get involved in the Ukraine conflict.

In March 2023, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz publicly warned China that there would be consequences if it gets involved.

Given that China has not yet officially stepped forward to support Russia, these efforts appear successful.

However, research has shown that countries intervene in conflicts when they think their interests may be affected and when they can make a difference. This could be a factor that pushes China to become more involved in Russia’s battle.

Michael A. Allen, Professor of Political Science, Boise State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

6 Steps to Get Better Sleep and Improve Heart Health

There’s more to maintaining a healthy heart than just eating right and exercising regularly. While these practices play an important role in both cardiovascular and overall health and well-being, getting a good night’s sleep is also key.

“Getting a good night’s sleep every night is vital to cardiovascular health,” said Donald M. Lloyd-Jones, M.D., Sc.M., FAHA, past volunteer president of the American Heart Association and chair of the department of preventive medicine, the Eileen M. Foell Professor of Heart Research and professor of preventive medicine, medicine and pediatrics at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine. “Adults should aim for an average of 7-9 hours, and babies and kids need more depending on their age.”

However, more than 1 in 3 adults in the United States are not getting the recommended 7-9 hours of sleep per night, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In addition to increasing risk for cardiovascular conditions like high blood pressure, heart disease, heart attack and stroke, lack of sleep may also put people at risk of depression, cognitive decline, diabetes and obesity.

While high blood pressure – a known risk factor of cardiovascular disease, the No. 1 cause of death worldwide – can run in families, it is more common in non-Hispanic Black adults (56%) than in non-Hispanic white adults (48%), non-Hispanic Asian adults (46%) or Hispanic adults (39%). Healthy lifestyle behaviors, including sleep, can help prevent the condition.

“We know that people who get adequate sleep manage other health factors better as well, such as weight, blood sugar and blood pressure,” Lloyd-Jones said. “The American Heart Association added sleep to the list of factors that support optimal cardiovascular health. We call these Life’s Essential 8, and they include: eating a healthy diet, not smoking or vaping, being physically active and getting adequate sleep along with controlling your blood pressure and maintaining healthy levels of cholesterol and lipids, healthy blood sugar levels and a healthy weight.”

What’s more, falling asleep at different times or sleeping an inconsistent number of hours each night, even variations of more than two hours a night within the same week, may also increase the risk of atherosclerosis, which is a cardiovascular condition where plaque builds up in the arteries, in those age 45 and older, according to research published in the “Journal of the American Heart Association.”

“Maintaining regular sleep schedules and decreasing variability in sleep is an easily adjustable lifestyle behavior that can not only help improve sleep, but also help reduce cardiovascular risk for aging adults,” said study lead author Kelsie Full, Ph.D., M.P.H., an assistant professor of medicine in the division of epidemiology at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

Education about healthy heart habits from the American Heart Association is nationally supported by Elevance Health Foundation. Some practices to improve sleep health and impact heart health include:

Observe Current Sleep Habits

Keeping a sleep diary to help track your sleep patterns and habits can make it easier to identify factors that may be helping – or hurting – your sleep quality. Monitor what time you go to bed, what time you wake up in the morning, how many times you woke up during the night, how you felt when you woke up and any variables, such as changes to your routine or sleeping arrangements. Having documentation over the course of several weeks can help you identify necessary changes.

Avoid Food and Beverage Close to Bedtime

It can be more difficult to fall asleep if you’re still digesting dinner. To help reduce sleep disruptions caused by food, avoid late dinners and minimize fatty and spicy foods. Similarly, keep an eye on caffeine intake and avoid it later in the day when it can be a barrier to falling asleep.

Exercise Regularly

Physical activity during the day can have a noticeable impact on overall health and wellness but can also make it easier to sleep at night as it can initiate changes in energy use and body temperature. However, exercising too close to bedtime may hinder your body’s ability to settle; aim to have your workout complete at least four hours before you plan to head to bed.

Establish a Bedtime Routine

Getting a good night’s rest often requires getting into a routine. Start by setting an alarm to indicate it’s time to start winding down. Rather than heading straight to bed, take time to create a to-do list for the following day and knock out a few small chores. Then consider implementing a calming activity like meditating, journaling or reading (not on a tablet or smartphone) before drifting off to sleep. Also set an alarm to wake each morning, even on weekends, and avoid hitting the snooze button to keep your biological rhythms synced.

Create a Comfortable Sleep Space

The ideal space for sleeping is dark, quiet and a comfortable temperature, typically around 65 F depending on the individual. Use room-darkening curtains or a sleep mask to block light and ear plugs, a fan or a white noise machine to help drown out distracting noises. Remember, using your bed only for sleep and sex can help establish a strong mental association between your bed and sleep.

Avoid Tech Before Bed

The bright light of televisions, computers and smartphones can mess with your Circadian rhythm and keep you alert when you should be winding down. Try logging off electronic devices at least one hour before bedtime and use the “do not disturb” function to avoid waking up to your phone throughout the night. Better yet, charge devices away from your bed or in another room entirely.

Find more tips to take control of your blood pressure and create healthy sleep habits at Heart.org.

Photo courtesy of Getty Images

SOURCE:
American Heart Association

Satisfy Guests with a Savory Snack and Wine Pairing

Satisfy Guests with a Savory Snack and Wine Pairing

Pairing an easy, delicious appetizer with the perfect wine doesn’t have to be as difficult as it sounds. When you’re ready to elevate your home entertaining, turn to a simplistic recipe featuring fresh, bold flavors.

Developed by sommelier and founder of “The Lush Life,” Sarah Tracey, this Whipped Goat Cheese Salsa Dip is part of her “Dips and Sips” partnership with Fresh Cravings, makers of authentic-tasting chilled salsas offering a vibrant alternative to soft, dull blends of jarred salsa, flavor-filled hummus, plant-based vegan dips and veggie-packed creamy dips.

“When I entertain at home, I’m always looking for ways to impress my friends with fresh, creative bites I can pair with wine,” Tracey said. “My favorite hack is finding great products with high-quality ingredients then creating simple, elevated ways to serve them. The less time I spend in the kitchen, the more time I get to spend with my guests.”

Ready in just 15 minutes and paired with a rosé, this savory recipe provides an ideal way to satisfy guests without spending too much time in the kitchen. Plus, with goat cheese at the heart of the dip, it’s a delicious way to capitalize on trendy butter boards with an approachable main ingredient.

Visit FreshCravings.com to discover more entertaining-worthy recipes and pairing ideas.

Whipped Goat Cheese Salsa Dip
Recipe courtesy of Sarah Tracey
Total time: 15 minutes
Servings: 6

• 1          goat cheese log (8 ounces), softened at room temperature
• 1          pinch sea salt
• 1/2       cup heavy cream
• Fresh Cravings Chunky Salsa, Mild
• 1/2       cup toasted pine nuts (optional)
• 1          bunch fresh parsley, chopped (optional)
• crackers, chips or vegetables
• 19 Crimes Snoop Dogg Rosé

1. In food processor or blender, blend goat cheese with sea salt and 2 tablespoons heavy cream. If mixture is too firm, add cream little by little while pulsing blender until light, fluffy consistency is reached.
2. Spread whipped goat cheese into shallow serving dish or onto board.
3. Top with salsa.
4. Garnish with toasted pine nuts and fresh parsley, if desired.
5. Serve with crackers, chips or veggies. Pair with rosé.

SOURCE:
Fresh Cravings

The Amazon is not safe under Brazil’s new president – a roads plan could push it past its breaking point

Fires are often set to clear land near roads in the Amazon. Johannes Myburgh / AFP via Getty Images

Robert T. Walker, University of Florida

Conservationists breathed a sigh of relief when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential election in the fall of 2022. His predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, had opened large parts of the Amazon region to business by crippling enforcement of environmental laws and turning a blind eye to land grabbing. It should come as no surprise that deforestation showed a sharp uptick.

However, while Lula oversaw a more than 70% drop in deforestation during his first run as president in the early 2000s, the rainforest’s future remains deeply uncertain.

That’s in part because Brazilian administrations, whether of the right or left, have all promoted an ambitious project to boost exports and the economy called the Initiative for the Integration of the Regional Infrastructure of South America, or IIRSA.

The initiative focuses on new roads, dams and industry that can threaten the region’s fragile rainforest ecosystem – and harm the world’s climate in the process.

Trucks along the BR163 highway, a major transport route that has contributed to deforestation. Nelson Almeida / AFP via Getty Images

The problem with infrastructure in the forest

At first glance, IIRSA might sound like progress. Its goal is to improve Amazonia’s economy by developing its resources and establishing better access to global markets. To accomplish this, the initiative plans to rehabilitate and extend the existing highway system and build dams, ports, industrial waterways and railroads.

However, evidence from my research in the Amazon over the past 30 years and by other scientists shows that new roads lead to more deforestation, putting extreme pressure on the rainforest. Outside of protected areas, nearly 95% of all deforestation occurs within 3.4 miles (5.5 kilometers) of a road or less than two-thirds of a mile (1 km) from a river.

Deforestation rates fell during Lula’s first presidency, primarily because Brazil expanded its protected areas program and enforced environmental laws. However, deforestation began to rise again during the administration of his protégé, President Dilma Rousseff.

Both Lula and Rousseff furthered the IIRSA agenda by building dams on the Madeira River and on the Xingu River, where the Belo Monte dam diverted streamflow vital to the survival of Indigenous communities.

They also downsized protected areas to make way for their projects. Rousseff even downsized Amazon National Park, the first such park in Amazonia. In all, 181 square miles (469 square kilometers) were removed, close to 5% of the total area. The most scenic park landscape along the Tapajos River shoreline was taken to make way for dam construction.

Now back in office, Lula has signaled his approval of a key IIRSA project: the revitalization of BR-319, a federal highway between Porto Velho and Manaus.

Satellite images from 2000 to 2019 show how deforestation spread out from Highway BR-163 over 10 years. Lauren Dauphin/NASA Earth Observatory

If this project is completed, it will open the central Amazon basin to even more deforestation.

I believe this should cause alarm. Research shows too much deforestation could push the forest over a tipping point from which it can’t recover. No one knows exactly where the line is, but the vast Amazon that people picture today with its extraordinary biodiversity and dense forests would be no more. Such a catastrophe once seemed the bad dream of doomsayers, but there is mounting evidence that the forest is in trouble.

The Amazonian tipping point

The tropical rainforest sustains itself by recycling rain to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration, which makes more moisture available. Rainfall recycling accounts for about 50% of the basin’s precipitation today.

Too much deforestation could leave too little rainfall recycling to sustain the forest.

Scientists initially estimated the tipping point would occur once about 40% of the Amazon was deforested. That estimate has slipped downward over time given the intensification of fires and the onset of observable climate change in the basin itself. Moreover, the forest shows diminishing resilience, meaning it is less able to recover from climate extremes. Scientists have already observed widespread shifts to more drought-tolerant tree species.

Given the evidence, scientists have revised the tipping point to deforestation as low as 20% to 25%. Even if only a fifth of the forest is lost, the remainder could quickly degrade into an ecosystem of fire-adapted grasses and shrubby trees that look nothing like the massive ones native to the rainforest.

NASA satellite images show the expansion of deforestation as roads are built in the Amazon.

Deforestation across all the Amazonian nations now stands at a little over 16%. In my view, this is far too close for comfort, especially with the momentum of the IIRSA program.

More than one tipping point?

The deforestation problem isn’t the only pressure on the forest – the Amazon is also dealing with the heat and drought of global warming.

Evidence suggests that global climate change may be enough to push large parts of the rainforest to the brink. One concern is that the dry season is getting longer, a shift that appears to be driven by global warming. This affects annual precipitation by reducing the number of rainy days and makes fire more damaging by extending the season when trees can easily burn.

Currently, dry season lengthening is most pronounced in the Southern Basin. However, changes in the southern rainfall pattern can reduce precipitation in the wettest parts of the basin to the west. One estimate suggests dry season lengthening could cause a tipping point transition by 2064.

What can be done?

Averting Amazonia’s looming tipping point catastrophe will require effort by the global community. In the past, Brazil has controlled deforestation through its forest code and by designating protected areas.

To step back from the brink, Lula would have to begin enforcing the forest code again, which limits deforestation on private property. He would also have to persuade the Brazilian Congress to stop creating incentives for land grabs – the taking of public land for private uses.

Although Lula would have a difficult time reclaiming already grabbed land, expanding protected areas could reduce deforestation. Obviously, downsizing Amazonia’s existing protected areas would have to stop.

Finally, Lula would need to revisit the IIRSA program and pursue only those projects that bring economic development without excessive deforestation.

The edge of a soy plantation shows the Amazon before and after deforestation. Ricardo Beliel/Brazil Photos/LightRocket via Getty Images

Research I am currently working on with colleagues in the Ecuadorian Amazon focuses on a particular type of protected area, the Indigenous Territory. We argue that safeguarding Indigenous territorial rights provides Amazonia’s national governments with effective conservation allies. This is because Indigenous peoples want to defend their homelands. Unfortunately, national governments are not always supportive of Indigenous rights, especially when their territories contain mineral wealth.

Slowing global climate change, however, will require international collaboration on an unprecedented scale. Luckily, a forum for this already exists with the Paris Agreement.

Areas with intense deforestation in 2021 largely aligned with major roadways. Finer M, Mamani N, Spore J (2020) Amazon Deforestation Hotspots 2021. MAAP: 147, CC BY

The people of the Amazon

The Amazon Basin is home to 35 million people, many of whom live in poverty. They have every right to desire a better life, and that’s one reason that IIRSA has a great deal of local support.

However, while the initiative might bring short-term benefits, it also risks destroying the very resources it was intended to develop. And that could leave the region in a state of poverty that cannot be alleviated.

Robert T. Walker, Professor of Latin American Studies and Geography, University of Florida

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

40 years ago ‘A Nation at Risk’ warned of a ‘rising tide of mediocrity’ in US schools – has anything changed?

Academic gains made over the past four decades have begun to erode. Troy Aossey/The Image Bank via Getty Images

Morgan Polikoff, University of Southern California

The National Commission on Excellence in Education’s release of a report titled “A Nation at Risk” in 1983 was a pivotal point in the history of American education. The report used dire language, lamenting that “the educational foundations of our society are presently being eroded by a rising tide of mediocrity that threatens our very future as a Nation and a people.”

Using Cold War language, the report also famously stated: “If an unfriendly foreign power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war.”

The report ushered in four decades of ambitious education reforms at the state and federal levels. Those reforms included landmark policy shifts like George W. Bush’s No Child Left Behind Act, Barack Obama’s Race to the Top program and major state reforms in areas including teacher quality, school choice and test-based accountability for schools and teachers. But what is the legacy of “A Nation at Risk” 40 years after its publication? And what are the implications for school reform in the coming years?

As a scholar of education who specializes in standards-based reform and accountability, I believe important lessons can be learned about American education by examining what has taken place since the release of the report. Here are three:

1. Education reform has improved outcomes, but progress has slowed or reversed in the past decade

The U.S. has had major challenges with educational performance that long predate “A Nation at Risk.” One is that too many students are not mastering grade-level material. Another is that not enough are enrolling in and completing college given the benefits of college to individuals and society. Additionally, large gaps exist in both of those areas based on race and ethnicity and income.

Since the report, students from all racial, ethnic and socioeconomic groups have continuously made achievement gains, and gaps have narrowed considerably since the 1970s – especially in the early grades. Yet low levels of achievement and gaps in achievement remain. For instance, even before the COVID-19 pandemic, 34% of fourth graders scored below the “basic” level on the National Assessment of Educational Progress, meaning they weren’t reading at grade level. Since COVID-19, national assessment results in reading and math indicate the pandemic erased two decades of achievement gains; for instance, in eighth grade math the number of students scoring below basic increased from 31% in 2019 to 38% in 2022.

The nation has also made tremendous progress in outcomes beyond academic tests. For instance, the high school dropout rate has plummeted, dropping from about about 14% around the time of the report to about 6% now. Meanwhile, the proportion of 25-to-29-year-olds with a four-year college degree has doubled to about 38%.

2. The reforms did not address the root causes of the problems

The report spurred four decades of intense reform led by states and the federal government. But these reforms have largely not addressed the major causes of poor educational performance – poverty and other factors outside of school, as well as highly decentralized educational systems that thwart meaningful school improvement.

For example, child poverty is still widespread; many students lack access to quality early childhood education; and many children live in polluted environments that affect their learning.

The result of these factors in the early years is that only about half of children enter kindergarten healthy and ready to learn, and even fewer among children from low-income families.

While schools can help lessen these disparities in school readiness between more and less advantaged children, the report failed to look beyond schools for solutions to problems that stem from social inequality.

Gaps in educational performance persist along racial and socioeconomic lines. Blend Images - JGI/Jamie Grill/Tetra Collection via Getty Images

The narrow view of “A Nation at Risk” is notable because the widely accepted wisdom of the time, especially among Republicans, and going back to the 1966 Coleman Report, was that schools aren’t a primary driver of inequality. After all, the Coleman Report found that differences in school resources, like money and books, didn’t account for differences in student achievement between more and less advantaged children.

Even the education efforts since the report have not been able to address the structural barriers in U.S. education to large-scale improvement. For instance, in a recent book I show that state and federal policies over the past 30 years that focus on improving schools through better and clearer standards have only modestly improved teaching.

A big part of why standards and other education reforms have failed has to do with the fact that school systems in the U.S. are remarkably decentralized. About 13,000 school districts and their individual teachers exercise substantial control over what actually happens in classrooms. The inability of policymakers at higher levels – such as states or the federal government – to meaningfully change school practice partially explains why other major reforms have failed to achieve real results. Examples include the Obama administration’s US$7 billion school turnaround plan and teacher evaluation reforms. In a more centralized system, policies enacted at the state and federal levels could be implemented as intended; that is rarely the case in U.S. education.

3. The political coalitions that brought reform have fallen apart

As on other topics, Americans are highly polarized on education policy. From “A Nation at Risk” through even much of the Obama administration, many aspects of the education reform agenda had bipartisan agreement. Governors of both parties came together to enact standards and testing reforms that set expectations for student learning and measured student progress against those expectations in the 1980s and 1990s. Congress voted overwhelmingly for the No Child Left Behind Act in 2001, calling for more rigorous standards and more frequent testing to drive educational improvement.

And some versions of school choice – especially charter schools – were supported by Republican and Democratic administrations in Washington and nationwide. Even the now-controversial Common Core standards, which aimed to create consistent expectations for student learning in math and English nationwide, were originally bipartisan. That is, they were created and endorsed by leaders from both parties.

This broad reform coalition is no more.

Debates over what to teach children in schools are driving a partisan wedge between schools and parents. Republican states are removing racial and LGBT-related topics from the curriculum. Meanwhile, Democratic states mandate their inclusion.

And expanding choice programs continue to drive down public school enrollment in states across the nation. Over a million students have been lost from public schools, and private school enrollment has increased 4% since the onset of COVID-19.

The result of these trends is that the reform consensus that brought about a broadly national approach to education reform is splintering into red state and blue state versions. I expect red state reform will likely emphasize school choice and a back-to-basics curriculum focused on reading, math and the avoidance of controversial topics. I expect blue state reform will likely emphasize whole-child supports like mental health, social-emotional learning and curriculum that is intended to reflect the culture of the nation’s increasingly diverse student body.

The problems raised in “A Nation at Risk” remain as important as they were in 1983. In my view, national leaders need to continue to improve educational opportunity and performance for America’s schoolchildren. Improved education benefits individuals – those with college degrees have longer life expectancies, higher earnings and wealth and even more happiness than those with a high school degree or lower. Education also benefits societies, leading to greater economic growth. But 40 years after the report, policymakers don’t seem to have learned the lesson that schools alone won’t solve the nation’s educational problems. And if that’s true, the nation remains at risk.

Morgan Polikoff, Associate Professor of Education, University of Southern California

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

China’s latest diplomatic move will extend its trade, energy, financial and maritime power

Jose Caballero, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)

China’s billions of dollars in global investments and infrastructure projects seem to be paying off politically and economically.

Just recently, Honduras signalled it is set to cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan, having been one of the few remaining countries to recognise the island as a state. This switch of allegiances would be a coup for China, which sees Taiwan as part of its jurisdiction, but also a sign of diminishing US power in Latin America, since the US is a long-time supporter of Taiwan.

China’s influence seems to be everywhere. Days before Chinese president Xi Jinping flew into Moscow to discuss the Ukraine war with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China had brokered a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The high-profile deal sought to re-establish diplomatic, trade and security relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in an effort to de-escalate tensions and bring more stability to the Middle East. The agreement transforms the nature of China’s involvement in the region from one purely driven by commercial interests into a security-related cooperation that can protect its growing assets and expatriate population in the region.

Commentators see the agreement as a positive step but wonder about the influence that Iran and Saudi Arabia can have in lessening the internal conflicts in several nearby countries. This is particularly where they support rival parties, including in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. What the deal does highlight is the rising influence that China can exert and the waning of the US’s power over the Middle East regional order.

Studies have shown that political instability in neighbouring countries negatively affects the economic performance of a nation by disrupting trade flows and increasing defence expenditures while lessening investment, for example, in education. Under such conditions, economic incentives can drive a peace-building process. Peacefully resolving conflicts benefits countries not directly entangled in the disputes.

Since the 1990s, China has gradually become the largest trade partner of the Arab region overall and the top trade partner of Saudi Arabia. China’s exports to Saudi Arabia have annually increased at 15.3% year on year on average, amounting to US$905 million (£740 million) in 1995 and US$31.8 billion in 2020.

Meanwhile, over the same period, China’s imports from Saudi Arabia rose from US$393 million to US$33.4 billion, an average annual increase of 19.4%. In 2019, China and Saudi Arabia signed 35 trade and investments deals.

Regional power plays

Similarly, China’s exports to Iran have increased at an average 14.7% annual rate from US$276 million in 1995 to US$8.51 billion in 2020. And its imports from Iran have also risen by 14.5% annually between 1995 (US$197 million) and 2020 (US$5.85 billion).

By 2022, exports totalled US$9.44 billion and continued to grow exponentially in early 2023. Russia has recently overtaken China as the largest foreign investor in Iran, but China remains its largest oil customer.

China’s main exports to Saudi Arabia and Iran include broadcasting equipment, motor vehicles and air pumps. Its main imports are crude petroleum, ethylene polymers and acrylic alcohols.

In the context of the Saudi Arabia and Iran reconciliation, trade with China is likely to continue to follow such increasing trends. If benefits from the agreement spread to other countries in the region, China could also gain from economic relations with those countries as regional stability increases.

There is already some evidence of such positive spillover. After the agreement with the Saudis, Iran is ready to expand cooperation, hopes rapprochement with Bahrain will be possible, and is willing to improve relations with Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.

However it’s worth noting some commentators point out that previous efforts at reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia were unsuccessful, while others question whether they will adhere to the terms of the agreement.

Belt and Road

As well as investing in commercial and transport infrastructure to make trade easier, the objectives of China’s Belt and Road Initiative include the strengthening of its economic leadership and the improvement and creation of free trade blocks among countries along the investment route. The Iran-Saudi Arabia agreement will generate further benefits to China by boosting the initiative’s dividends. Saudi Arabia’s strategic location bordering eight countries not only provides an alternative route for energy supply to China but also makes it a vital partner for the initiative’s infrastructure investment, which deepens China’s presence in the Middle East.

Iran’s strategic position provides it with considerable seaport facilities and has the potential for the development of an air transportation hub. China has already invested in the development of a 2,000-mile-long railway from Xinjiang’s capital Urumqi to Tehran.

Shutterstock

The agreement also brings a more subtle benefit to China. With Russia at war, China needs to ensure the continuity of its energy supply to boost economic performance and safeguard socio-political stability at home. Saudi Arabia and Iran provide a strong basis for the diversification of China’s energy options and also to pre-empt any potential move by the United States to constrain its access to the Gulf’s resources.

Iran has the world’s fourth largest oil and second gas reserves. Saudi Arabia has the second largest oil reserves, accounting for 16.2% of the world’s total. Access to such vast resources in the context of a more stable region provide China with further assurances for the future flow of the energy supplies its economic growth needs.

The Iran-Saudi initiative has the potential to address China’s energy security issues and turn China into a global maritime power and a global monetary power. All of these factors will contribute to the sustainability of China’s economic growth, and add to its status as a superpower.

Jose Caballero, Senior Economist, IMD World Competitiveness Center, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.