Is the Western drought finally ending? That depends on where you look

California’s snowpack was more than twice the average in much of the state in early March 2023. Mario Tama/Getty Images

Dan McEvoy, Desert Research Institute

After three years of extreme drought, the Western U.S. is finally getting a break. Mountain ranges are covered in deep snow, and water reservoirs in many areas are filling up following a series of atmospheric rivers that brought record rain and snowfall to large parts of the region.

Many people are looking at the snow and water levels and asking: Is the drought finally over?

There is a lot of nuance to the answer. Where you are in the West and how you define “drought” make a difference. As a drought and water researcher at the Desert Research Institute’s Western Regional Climate Center, here’s what I’m seeing.

How fast each region recovers will vary

The winter of 2023 has made a big dent in improving the drought and potentially eliminating the water shortage problems of the last few summers.

I say “potentially” because in many areas, a lot of the impacts of drought tend to show up in summer, once the winter rain and snow stop and the West starts relying on reservoirs and streams for water. Spring heat waves like the ones we saw in 2021 or rain in the mountains could melt the snowpack faster than normal.

Atmospheric rivers in January brought heavy rain across large parts of the West. Another powerful storm system hit in March. Climate.gov

California and the Great Basin

In California, the state’s three-year precipitation deficit was just about erased by the atmospheric rivers that caused so much flooding in December and January. By March, the snowpack across the Sierra Nevada was well above the historical averages – and more than 200% of average in some areas. The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California announced it was ending emergency water restrictions for nearly 7 million people on March 15.

It seems as though most of the surface water drought – drought involving streams and reservoirs – could be eliminated by summer in California and the Great Basin, across Nevada and western Utah.

The early 2023 storms likely could have filled Lake Oroville, one of California’s largest reservoirs. But reservoirs are also essential for flood management, so managers balance how much water to retain and how much to release. NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin

But that’s only surface water. Drought also affects groundwater, and those effects will take longer to alleviate.

Studies in California have shown that, even after wet years like 2017 and 2019, the groundwater systems did not fully recover from the previous drought, in part because of years of overpumping groundwater for agriculture, and the aquifers were not fully recharging.

In that sense, the drought is not over. But at the broader scale for the region, a lot of the drought impacts that people experience will be lessened or almost gone by this summer.

The Colorado River Basin

Similar to the Sierra Nevada, the Upper Colorado River Basin – Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and northwestern New Mexico – has a healthy snowpack this year, and it’s looking like a very good water year there.

The snow water equivalent, a measure of snowpack, was over 200% of average in several areas on March 21, 2023. Drought.gov

But one single good water year is not going to fill Lake Mead and Lake Powell. Most of the region relies on those two reservoirs, which have declined to worrying levels over the past two decades.

Two good water years won’t do it either. Over the next decade, most years will have to be above average to begin to fill those giant reservoirs. Rising temperatures and drying will make that even harder.

So, that system is still going to be dealing with a lot of the same long-term drought impacts that it has been seeing. The reservoirs will likely rise some, but nowhere close to capacity.

The Pacific Northwest

The Pacific Northwest isn’t having as much rain and snow, and it’s a little drier there. But it’s close to average, so there’s not a huge concern there, at least not right now.

Forests, range land and the fire risk

Drought can also have longer-term impacts on ecosystems, particularly forest health.

The Sierra Nevada range has seen large-scale tree die-offs with the drought in recent years, including in northern areas around Lake Tahoe and Reno that weren’t as affected by the previous drought. Whether the recent die-offs there are due to the severity of the current drought or lingering effects from the past droughts is an open question.

Even with a wet winter, it’s not clear how soon the forests will recover.

Rangelands, since they are mostly grasses, can recover in a few months. The soil moisture is really high in a lot of these areas, so range conditions should be good across the West – at least going into summer.

Drought and bark beetles have killed millions of trees across California in recent years, contributing to wildfire risk. David McNew/Getty Images

If the West has another really hot, dry summer, however, the drought could ramp up again, particularly in the Northwest and California. And then communities will have to think about fire risk.

Right now, there’s a below-normal likelihood of big fires in the Southwest for early spring due to lots of soil moisture and snowpack.

In the higher-elevation mountains and forests, the above-average snowpack is likely to last longer than it has in recent years, so those regions will likely have a later start to the fire season. But lower elevations, like the Great Basin’s shrub- and grassland-dominated ecosystem, could see fire danger starting earlier in the year if the land dries out.

Long-term outlooks aren’t necessarily reliable

By a lot of atmospheric measures, California appears to be coming out of drought, and the drought feels like it’s ending elsewhere. But it’s hard to say when exactly the drought is over. Studies suggest the West’s hydroclimate is becoming more variable in its swings from drought to deluge.

Drought is also hard to forecast, particularly long term. Researchers can get a pretty good sense of conditions one month out, but the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and weather make longer-range outlooks less reliable.

We saw that this year. The initial forecast was for a dry winter 2023 in much of the West. But in California, Arizona and New Mexico, the opposite happened.

Seasonal forecasts tend to rely heavily on whether it’s an El Niño or La Niña year, involving sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific that can affect the jet stream and atmospheric conditions around the world. During La Niña – the pattern we saw from 2020 until March 2023 – the Southwest tends to be drier and the Pacific Northwest wetter.

NOAA explains El Niño and La Niña.

But that pattern doesn’t always set up in exactly the same way and in the same place, as we saw this year.

There is a lot more going on in the atmosphere and the oceans on a short-term scale that can dominate the La Niña pattern. This year’s series of atmospheric rivers has been one example.

Editor’s note: This article was updated on March 22, 2023, with the latest snowpack map.

Dan McEvoy, Associate Research Professor in Climatology, Desert Research Institute

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

This course uses science fiction to understand politics

Science fiction offers a glimpse of what governments of the world are – and can become. agsandrew via Getty Images

Nicole Pankiewicz, College of Coastal Georgia

Uncommon Courses is an occasional series from The Conversation U.S. highlighting unconventional approaches to teaching.

Title of course:

“Politics and Science Fiction”

What prompted the idea for the course?

While watching “Andor” – a science fiction TV series that is part of the “Star Wars” galaxy of films, books and TV shows – I realized that what fascinates me most about science fiction is the political aspect, especially regarding power.

I decided to create an upper-level political science course that explores politics and government through the lens of science fiction, with a focus on literature.

What does the course explore?

We explore issues of racism, gender, anarchy and the end of civilization. I chose books that encourage students to focus on the political aspects of each work. At the beginning of the course, I ask students how closely they connect science fiction and politics. At the end of the course, students have the opportunity to revisit and revise their response to that question. By that point, students have participated in discussions, written papers and completed short assignments that ask them to explore and articulate political themes in each book.

I find that students in this course begin to take science fiction more seriously as a political genre, and those who come into the class as new readers of science fiction learn to appreciate its many subgenres and perspectives.

Why is this course relevant now?

As numerous state legislatures seek to restrict what can be taught regarding many issues, including race, it’s important to understand the power structures behind racism. Science fiction is an ideal way to explore issues of power and oppression.

Derrick Bell, the author of “The Space Traders,” is one of the originators of critical race theory, which holds that racism has been codified in American law and society. Bell’s story blends science fiction and politics to illustrate how politicians could use the Constitution and the law to extend racist policies to an extreme degree, all for the benefit of white Americans.

What’s a critical lesson from the course?

In one of the writing assignments I ask students to compare the political themes of Ursula K. Le Guin’s “The Dispossessed” – including utopia, anarchy, gender and power – to another work of science fiction that they enjoy. The goal is to help them make connections to political perspectives in other science fiction works and to get them to reexamine a piece of science fiction they’re already familiar with.

This semester, students made comparisons to political themes in multiple science fiction formats and subgenres including “Star Wars,” “The Last of Us” and “The Hunger Games.”

What materials does the course feature?

• Ursula K. Le Guin’s “The Dispossessed,” a novel that closely examines anarchy, utopia and gender relations.

• Stanislaw Lem’s “The Futurological Congress,” a novel about a future in which the government uses hallucinogenic drugs to create the illusion of utopia.

• Naomi Alderman’s “The Power,” a novel that imagines a world in which women gain physical and political power.

What will the course prepare students to do?

This course is designed to expose students to themes in science fiction that will expand their understanding of politics and power. I ask students to explore and articulate the explicitly political aspects of science fiction. My goal is for students to leave the class with a new perspective on politics and government that will make politics more interesting to them and inform how they engage with works of science fiction, whether as books, movies or some other format.

Nicole Pankiewicz, Assistant Professor of Political Science, College of Coastal Georgia

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Lula and the world: what to expect from the new Brazilian foreign policy

Guilherme Casarões, São Paulo School of Business Administration (FGV/EAESP)

Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was scheduled to visit his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping at the end of March. Beijing would have been Lula’s fourth international destination in less than 100 days in office.

Lula had to cancel his trip, which was set to include 200 business people, after catching pneumonia. His administration had hoped the China visit would alleviate political pressure at home.

Since returning to the presidency (his previous term was 2003-2010), Lula has already been to visit partners in the South American trade bloc Mercosur, Argentina and Uruguay, and recently flew to Washington DC for conversations with US president Joe Biden and members of the Democratic party over infrastructure investments, trade and climate change.

Globetrotting seems like quite an effort for a 77-year-old, third-term president who faces a deeply divided society. But Lula does it with a smile on his face. Since he first took office 20 years ago, the former metalworker has risen to the challenge of international diplomacy as a natural negotiator with political charm.

Building political legitimacy

As Lula kicks off his third term, foreign policy will be a tool for building his own domestic political legitimacy. His reputation currently appears to be greater abroad than at home.

Always a determined player on the international stage, Lula’s administration spearheaded the construction of Unasur, a South American organisation set up to offset US economic and political power in the region. He also forged several alliances in the developing world.

Although Lula left office in 2010 with an impressive 83% approval rating, much of his political capital waned in the years that followed. This was largely thanks to his successor Dilma Rousseff’s pitiful economic performance and to the mounting accusations of graft against top figures in his Workers’ party.

But despite being indicted and imprisoned for corruption in early 2018 (at which point his domestic popularity plummeted), the admiration of foreign figures has endured. Some even visited Lula in prison, protesting what they called political persecution of the former president.

So, at the age of 77 – and with health problems – a big diplomatic play might be his best bet of leaving a presidential legacy.

Challenges of a new world order

But Brazil’s capacity as a meaningful international player will depend on the administration’s ability to navigate a world that is fundamentally different from the one of the early 2000s.

The country is not in its best shape, either. In the years following Lula’s first two terms, Brazil went through a decade of decline, introspection and isolation.

Much of this is down to his immediate predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro. On Bolsonaro’s watch, Brazil ranked second, at 700,000 recorded deaths, in total COVID fatalities. Massive areas of rainforest were burned, and the lands of the Yanomami indigenous people were devastated by large amounts of mining.

So, while Lula must capitalise on any residual international popularity to relaunch Brazil as a global player, he has a lot to do to restore his own country’s economy and to heal the wounds of a divided society.

Lula’s first task internationally – a tough challenge – is to strike a balance in his relationships with Washington and Beijing, Brazil’s two foremost partners. So far, his new administration’s even-handed strategy has worked fine. But if tensions between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping lead to further political instability – or if a Republican with a zero-sum approach to China gets elected in 2024, Brazil could find itself in a difficult position.

Lula has attempted to anticipate these problems by offering to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. It was a way to dodge criticism by western powers, who wanted Brazil to engage in military assistance to the Ukrainian government – while still preserving Brazil’s longstanding ties with Russia.

Lula’s take on the war is part of what researchers have dubbed “active non-alignment”. It is part of a broader Latin American strategy to safeguard policy space and instruments for national development strategies in an increasingly polarised international order. By offering itself as a high-profile mediator, Brazil wants to maintain trade and cooperation with all sides in the conflict.

Lula’s balancing trick

But Russian-Ukrainian peace appears to be a long way off – and it will hardly come via mediators from the developing world. If Lula wants to create a legacy, he needs to build on Brazil’s preexisting capacity, in both multilateral and regional terms.

One possible way is to restore Brazil’s activism at the United Nations. He must also reestablish cooperation in issues as diverse as climate change, biodiversity, indigenous rights, vaccines, food security and development.

Another way is to rebuild South American integration. Regional organisations such as Mercosur and Unasur could help bolster global supply chains in critical sectors like energy and food that have been disrupted by the war in Ukraine. To do so, Brazil must reclaim its role as the continent’s centre of economic gravity.

But there is an obstacle: Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. A persistent political, economic and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela has exposed the dangers of left-wing authoritarianism. Lula is one of the few leaders who have open channels with Maduro and may be able to help the country work towards a national reconciliation.

The question is whether Lula wants to get involved. Unlike left-wing leaders who recently rose to power in Chile and Colombia, Lula and the Workers’ party have been unapologetically sympathetic towards dictators such as Venezuela’s Maduro and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega.

Overcoming the Brazilian left’s outdated views on authoritarian socialism and anti-imperialism may be as daunting a challenge for the Lula administration as leaving a sound diplomatic legacy. But both steps are necessary if Lula really wants to make a difference in the region – and the world.

Guilherme Casarões, Professor of Political Science, São Paulo School of Business Administration (FGV/EAESP)

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Declines in math readiness underscore the urgency of math awareness

Math scores plummeted during the COVID-19 pandemic. What will it take to raise them back up? Ridofranz / iStock / Getty Images Plus

Manil Suri, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

When President Ronald Reagan proclaimed the first National Math Awareness Week in April 1986, one of the problems he cited was that too few students were devoted to the study of math.

“Despite the increasing importance of mathematics to the progress of our economy and society, enrollment in mathematics programs has been declining at all levels of the American educational system,” Reagan wrote in his proclamation.

Nearly 40 years later, the problem that Reagan lamented during the first National Math Awareness Week – which has since evolved to become “Mathematics and Statistics Awareness Month” – not only remains but has gotten worse.

Whereas 1.63%, or about 16,000, of the nearly 1 million bachelor’s degrees awarded in the U.S. in the 1985-1986 school year went to math majors, in 2020, just 1.4%, or about 27,000, of the 1.9 million bachelor’s degrees were awarded in the field of math – a small but significant decrease in the proportion.

Post-pandemic data suggests the number of students majoring in math in the U.S. is likely to decrease in the future.

A key factor is the dramatic decline in math learning that took place during the lockdown. For instance, whereas 34% of eighth graders were proficient in math in 2019, test data shows the percentage dropped to 26% after the pandemic.

These declines will undoubtedly affect how much math U.S. students can do at the college level. For instance, in 2022, only 31% of graduating high school seniors were ready for college-level math – down from 39% in 2019.

These declines will also affect how many U.S. students are able to take advantage of the growing number of high-paying math occupations, such as data scientists and actuaries. Employment in math occupations is projected to increase by 29% in the period from 2021 to 2031.

About 30,600 math jobs are expected to open up per year from growth and replacement needs. That exceeds the 27,000 or so math graduates being produced each year – and not all math degree holders go into math fields. Shortages will also arise in several other areas, since math is a gateway to many STEM fields.

For all of these reasons and more, as a mathematician who thinks deeply about the importance of math and what it means to our world – and even to our existence as human beings – I believe this year, and probably for the foreseeable future, educators, policymakers and employers need to take Mathematics and Statistics Awareness Month more seriously than ever before.

Struggles with mastery

Subpar math achievement has been endemic in the U.S. for a long time.

Data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress shows that no more than 26% of 12th graders have been rated proficient in math since 2005.

The pandemic disproportionately affected racially and economically disadvantaged groups. During the lockdown, these groups had less access to the internet and quiet studying spaces than their peers. So securing Wi-Fi and places to study are key parts of the battle to improve math learning.

Some people believe math teaching techniques need to be revamped, as they were through the Common Core, a new set of educational standards that stressed alternative ways to solve math problems. Others want a return to more traditional methods. Advocates also argue there is a need for colleges to produce better-prepared teachers.

Other observers believe the problem lies with the “fixed mindset” many students have – where failure leads to the conviction that they can’t do math – and say the solution is to foster a “growth” mindset – by which failure spurs students to try harder.

Although all these factors are relevant, none address what in my opinion is a root cause of math underachievement: our nation’s ambivalent relationship with mathematics.

Low visibility

Many observers worry about how U.S. children fare in international rankings, even though math anxiety makes many adults in the U.S. steer clear of the subject themselves.

Mathematics is not like art or music, which people regularly enjoy all over the country by visiting museums or attending concerts. It’s true that there is a National Museum of Mathematics in New York, and some science centers in the U.S. devote exhibit space to mathematics, but these can be geographically inaccessible for many.

A 2020 study on media portrayals of math found an overall “invisibility of mathematics” in popular culture. Other findings were that math is presented as being irrelevant to the real world and of little interest to most people, while mathematicians are stereotyped to be singular geniuses or socially inept nerds, and white and male.

Math is tough and typically takes much discipline and perseverance to succeed in. It also calls for a cumulative learning approach – you need to master lessons at each level because you’re going to need them later.

While research in neuroscience shows almost everyone’s brain is equipped to take up the challenge, many students balk at putting in the effort when they don’t score well on tests. The myth that math is just about procedures and memorization can make it easier for students to give up. So can negative opinions about math ability conveyed by peers and parents, such as declarations of not being “a math person.”

A positive experience

Here’s the good news. A 2017 Pew poll found that despite the bad rap the subject gets, 58% of U.S. adults enjoyed their school math classes. It’s members of this legion who would make excellent recruits to help promote April’s math awareness. The initial charge is simple: Think of something you liked about math – a topic, a puzzle, a fun fact – and go over it with someone. It could be a child, a student, or just one of the many adults who have left school with a negative view of math.

Math exercise for shells can be downloaded at https://www.manilsuri.com/assets/shell_patterns.pptx. Manil Suri, Author provided

Can something that sounds so simplistic make a difference? Based on my years of experience as a mathematician, I believe it can – if nothing else, for the person you talk to. The goal is to stimulate curiosity and convey that mathematics is much more about exhilarating ideas that inform our universe than it is about the school homework-type calculations so many dread.

Raising math awareness is a first step toward making sure people possess the basic math skills required not only for employment, but also to understand math-related issues – such as gerrymandering or climate change – well enough to be an informed and participating citizen. However, it’s not something that can be done in one month.

Given the decline in both math scores and the percentage of students studying math, it may take many years before America realizes the stronger relationship with math that President Reagan’s proclamation called for during the first National Math Awareness Week in 1986.

Manil Suri, Professor of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Great Mysteries of Physics 3: is there a multiverse?

The light left over from the Big Bang, seen by the Planck satellite. ESA/ LFI & HFI Consortia, CC BY-SA

Miriam Frankel, The Conversation

Interest in the multiverse theory, suggesting that our universe is just one of many, spiked following the release of the movie Everything Everywhere All At Once. The film follows Evelyn Wang on her journey to connect with versions of herself in parallel universes to ultimately stop the destruction of the multiverse.

The multiverse idea has long been an inspiration for science fiction writers. But does it have any basis in science? And if so, is it a concept we could ever test experimentally?

That’s the topic of the third episode of our podcast Great Mysteries of Physics – hosted by me, Miriam Frankel, science editor at The Conversation, and supported by FQxI, the Foundational Questions Institute.

“One way to think of a multiverse is just to say: ‘Well, the universe might be really, really big – much bigger than our observable universe – and so there could be other regions of the universe that are far beyond our horizon that have different things happening in them’,” explains Katie Mack, Hawking chair in cosmology and science communication at the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics in Canada. “And I think that idea is totally well accepted in cosmology.”

Everything Everywhere All At Once’s rock scene.

The idea that there could be other parts of the cosmos with different physical laws, processes and histories is hard to ignore. And the concept is consistent with the theories of quantum mechanics, which governs the micro-world of atoms and particles, string theory (an attempt at a theory of everything) – and also with cosmic inflation, which says the infant universe blew up hugely in size during a brief growth spurt, and then continued to grow at a less frantic pace. These theories each give rise to their own version of the multiverse theory.

For Andrew Pontzen, a professor of cosmology at University College London in the UK, quantum mechanics is the best reason to believe in the multiverse. According to quantum mechanics, particles can be in a mix of different possible states, such as locations, which is known as a “superposition”. But when we measure them, the superposition breaks and each particle randomly “picks” one state.

So what happens to the other possible outcomes? “There’s a brilliant way of understanding this which is to imagine that, actually, the reality we experience is just one kind of facet of a much more complicated multiverse, where pretty much anything that can happen does happen and we just experience one version of events,” explains Pontzen. “Although it sounds crazy, it’s sort of the least crazy option for understanding how quantum mechanics can be right.”

Not all physicists are fans of the multiverse, though. Many argue that if it’s impossible to ever observe other universes, the multiverse can’t be a scientific theory. “I think it’s fine for entertainment,” says Sabine Hossenfelder, a research fellow at the Frankfurt Institute of Advanced Studies, who describes the multiverse as “ascientific”. “You sometimes hear people talk about some kind of mathematical evidence. [But] that’s just not a thing – evidence is something that you actually observe.”

There is currently no observational support for the multiverse theory. However, Mack doesn’t think that necessarily means it is unscientific. “I don’t think that hypothesising the existence of something unobservable is inherently unscientific,” she argues. “The wave function [in quantum mechanics] is unobservable. We have ways to infer the existence of the wave function because the maths all works perfectly. That we never directly observe it is a little beside the point, because it’s such a basic part of the science.”

Pontzen, though, is optimistic that we may one day be able to see signs of a collision with another universe in the cosmic microwave background, which is the light left over from the Big Bang. He is also working on a laboratory experiment trying to shed light on how a baby universe could actually physically be born from a multiverse.

You can listen to Great Mysteries of Physics via any of the apps listed above, our RSS feed, or find out how else to listen here. You can also read .

Miriam Frankel, Podcast host, The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

3D printing promises to transform architecture forever – and create forms that blow today’s buildings out of the water

House Zero in Austin, Texas, is a 2,000-square-foot home that was built with 3D-printed concrete. Lake Flato Architects

James Rose, University of Tennessee

In architecture, new materials rarely emerge.

For centuries, wood, masonry and concrete formed the basis for most structures on Earth.

In the 1880s, the adoption of the steel frame changed architecture forever. Steel allowed architects to design taller buildings with larger windows, giving rise to the skyscrapers that define city skylines today.

Since the industrial revolution, construction materials have been largely confined to a range of mass-produced elements. From steel beams to plywood panels, this standardized kit of parts has informed the design and construction of buildings for over 150 years.

That may soon change with advances in what’s called “large-scale additive manufacturing.” Not since the adoption of the steel frame has there been a development with as much potential to transform the way buildings are conceived and constructed.

Large-scale additive manufacturing, like desktop 3D printing, involves building objects one layer at a time. Whether it’s clay, concrete or plastic, the print material is extruded in a fluid state and hardens into its final form.

As director of the Institute for Smart Structures at the University of Tennessee, I’ve been fortunate to work on a series of projects that deploy this new technology.

While some roadblocks to the widespread adoption of this technology still exist, I can foresee a future in which buildings are built entirely from recycled materials or materials sourced on-site, with forms inspired by the geometries of nature.

Promising prototypes

Among these is the Trillium Pavilion, an open-air structure printed from recycled ABS polymer, a common plastic used in a wide range of consumer products.

The structure’s thin, double-curved surfaces were inspired by the petals of its namesake flower. The project was designed by students, printed by Loci Robotics and constructed on the University of Tennessee Research Park at Cherokee Farm in Knoxville.

Other recent examples of large-scale additive manufacturing include Tecla, a 450-square-foot (41.8-square-meter) prototype dwelling designed by Mario Cucinella Architects and printed in Massa Lombarda, a small town in Italy.

Tecla was built from locally sourced clay. Mario Cucinella Architects

The architects printed Tecla out of clay sourced from a local river. The unique combination of this inexpensive material and radial geometry created an energy-efficient form of alternative housing.

Back in the U.S., the architecture firm Lake Flato partnered with the construction technology firm ICON to print concrete exterior walls for a home dubbed “House Zero” in Austin, Texas.

The 2,000-square-foot (185.8-square-meter) home demonstrates the speed and efficiency of 3D-printed concrete, and the structure displays a pleasing contrast between its curvilinear walls and its exposed timber frame.

The planning process

Large-scale additive manufacturing involves three knowledge areas: digital design, digital fabrication and material science.

To begin, architects create computer models of all the components that will be printed. These designers can then use software to test how the components will respond to structural forces and tweak the components accordingly. These tools can also help the designer figure out how to reduce the weight of components and automate certain design processes, such as smoothing complex geometric intersections, prior to printing.

A piece of software known as a slicer then translates the computer model into a set of instructions for the 3D printer.

You might assume 3D printers work at a relatively small scale – think cellphone cases and toothbrush holders.

But advances in 3D printing technology have allowed the hardware to scale up in a serious way. Sometimes the printing is done via what’s called a gantry-based system – a rectangular framework of sliding rails similar to a desktop 3D printer. Increasingly, robotic arms are used due to their ability to print in any orientation.

Robotic arms allow for more flexibility in the construction process.

The printing site can also vary. Furnishings and smaller components can be printed in factories, while entire houses must be printed on-site.

A range of materials can be used for large-scale additive manufacturing. Concrete is a popular choice due to its familiarity and durability. Clay is an intriguing alternative because it can be harvested on-site – which is what the designers of Tecla did.

But plastics and polymers could have the broadest application. These materials are incredibly versatile, and they can be formulated in ways that meet a wide range of specific structural and aesthetic requirements. They can also be produced from recycled and organically derived materials.

Inspiration from nature

Because additive manufacturing builds layer by layer, using only the material and energy required to make a particular component, it’s a far more efficient building process than “subtractive methods,” which involve cutting away excess material – think milling a wood beam out of a tree.

Even common materials like concrete and plastics benefit from being 3D-printed, since there’s no need for additional formwork or molds.

Most construction materials today are mass-produced on assembly lines that are designed to produce the same components. While reducing cost, this process leaves little room for customization.

Since there is no need for tooling, forms or dies, large-scale additive manufacturing allows each part to be unique, with no time penalty for added complexity or customization.

Another interesting feature of large-scale additive manufacturing is the capability to produce complex components with internal voids. This may one day allow for walls to be printed with conduit or ductwork already in place.

In addition, research is taking place to explore the possibilities of multi-material 3D printing, a technique that could allow windows, insulation, structural reinforcement – even wiring – to be fully integrated into a single printed component.

One of the aspects of additive manufacturing that excites me most is the way in which building layer by layer, with a slowly hardening material, mirrors natural processes, like shell formation.

A 3D-printed house in Shanghai that was built in less than 24 hours out of construction waste. Visual China Group/Getty Images

This opens up windows of opportunity, allowing designers to implement geometries that are difficult to produce using other construction methods, but are common in nature.

Structural frames inspired by the fine structure of bird bones could create lightweight lattices of tubes, with varying sizes reflecting the forces acting upon them. Façades that evoke the shapes of plant leaves might be designed to simultaneously shade the building and produce solar power.

Overcoming the learning curve

Despite the many positive aspects of large-scale additive manufacturing, there are a number of impediments to its wider adoption.

Perhaps the biggest to overcome is its novelty. There is an entire infrastructure built around traditional forms of construction like steel, concrete and wood, which include supply chains and building codes. In addition, the cost of digital fabrication hardware is relatively high, and the specific design skills needed to work with these new materials are not yet widely taught.

In order for 3D printing in architecture to become more widely adopted, it will need to find its niche. Similar to how word processing helped popularize desktop computers, I think it will be a specific application of large-scale additive manufacturing that will lead to its common use.

Perhaps it will be its ability to print highly efficient structural frames. I also already see its promise for creating unique sculptural façades that can be recycled and reprinted at the end of their useful life.

Either way, it seems likely that some combination of factors will ensure that future buildings will, in some part, be 3D-printed.

A 3D-printed façade in Foshan, China. The Association for Computer Aided Design in Architecture

James Rose, Director of the Institute for Smart Structures, University of Tennessee

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

20 years on, George W. Bush’s promise of democracy in Iraq and Middle East falls short

An Iraqi person walks down a road blocked by burning tires in Basra in August 2002. Hussein Faleh/AFP via Getty Images

Brian Urlacher, University of North Dakota

President George W. Bush and his administration put forward a variety of reasons to justify the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

In the months before the U.S. invasion, Bush said the looming conflict was about eradicating terrorism and seizing weapons of mass destruction – but also because of a “freedom deficit” in the Middle East, a reference to the perceived lag in participatory government in the region.

Many of these arguments would emerge as poorly grounded, given later events.

In 2004, then Secretary of State Colin Powell reflected on the weak rationale behind the main arguments for the invasion: that there were weapons of mass destruction. He acknowledged that “it turned out that the sourcing was inaccurate and wrong and in some cases deliberately misleading.”

In fact Iraq did not have a stockpile of weapons of mass destruction, as Powell and others had alleged at the time.

But the Bush administration’s rhetoric of building a more free, open and democratic Middle East persisted after the weapons of mass destruction claim had proven false, and has been harder to evaluate – at least in the short term. Bush assured the American public in 2003 that, “A new regime in Iraq would serve as a dramatic and inspiring example of freedom for other nations in the region.”

He focused on this theme during the ground invasion, in which a coalition force of nearly 100,000 American and other allied troops rapidly toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime.

“The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution,” Bush said in November 2003. He also said that the U.S. would be pursuing a “forward strategy of freedom in the Middle East.”

Twenty years on, it is worth considering how this “forward strategy” has played out both in Iraq and across the Middle East. In 2003, there was indeed, as Bush noted, a “freedom deficit” in the Middle East, where repressive authoritarian regimes dominated the region. Yet, in spite of tremendous upheaval in the Middle East over the past two decades, many authoritarian regimes remain deeply entrenched.

Iraqis demonstrate to show support for Saddam Hussein in February 2003 in Baghdad, Iraq. Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images

Measuring the ‘Freedom Gap’

Political science scholars like myself try to measure the democratic or authoritarian character of governments in a variety of ways.

The non-profit group Freedom House evaluates countries in terms of democratic institutions and whether they have free and fair elections, as well as people’s civil rights and liberties, such as freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and a free press. Freedom House rates each country and its level of democracy on a scale from 2 to 14, from “mostly free” to “least free.”

One way to think about the level of democracy in the region is to focus on the 23 countries and governments that form the Arab League, a regional organization that spans North Africa, the Red Sea coast and the Middle East. In 2003, the average Freedom House score for an Arab League member was 11.45 – far more authoritarian than the global average of 6.75 at the time.

Put another way, the Freedom House report in 2003 classified a little over 46% of all countries as “free,” but no country in the Arab League met that threshold.

While some Arab countries, like Saudi Arabia, were ruled by monarchies around this time, others, like Libya, were ruled by dictators.

The nearly 30-year-long regime of Hussein in Iraq fit this second pattern. Hussein was part of a 1968 coup led by the Ba'ath political party, a group that wanted all Arab countries to form one unified nation – but also became known for human rights violations. The Ba'ath Party relied upon Iraq’s oil wealth and repressive tactics against civilians to maintain power.

The fall of Hussein’s regime in April 2003 produced a nominally more democratic Iraq. But after fighting a series of sectarian insurgencies in Iraq over an eight-year period, the U.S. ultimately left behind a weak and deeply divided government.

A newsstand sells papers reporting the capture of Saddam Hussein, former leader of Iraq, by U.S. forces in 2003. Graeme Robertson/Getty Images

Post-invasion Iraq

The U.S. 2003 invasion succeeded in ousting a brutal regime – but establishing a healthy and thriving new democracy proved more challenging.

Rivalry between Iraq’s three main groups – the Sunni and Shiite Muslims as well as the Kurds, the largest ethnic minority in the country – paralyzed early attempts at political reorganization.

While Iraq today has a constitution, a parliament and holds regular elections, the country struggles both with popular legitimacy and with practical aspects of governance, such as providing basic education for children.

Indeed, in 2023, Freedom House continues to score Iraq as “Not Free” in its measure of democracy.

Since the U.S. military withdrawal in 2011, Iraq has lurched from one political crisis to another. From 2014 to 2017, large portions of western Iraq were controlled by the extremist militant Islamic State group.

In 2018 and 2019, rampant government corruption led to a string of anti-government protests, which sparked a violent crackdown by the government.

The protests prompted early parliamentary elections in November 2021, but the government has not yet been able to create a coalition government representing all competing political groups.

While Iraq’s most recent crisis avoided descending into civil war, the militarized nature of Iraqi political parties poses an ongoing risk of electoral violence.

An Iraqi man pushes a cart in Mosul after the government retook control from the Islamic State in 2017. Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP via Getty Images

The post-invasion Middle East

While Iraq continues to face deep political challenges, it is worth considering the U.S. efforts at regional democracy promotion more fully.

In 2014, widespread protest movements associated with the Arab Spring toppled dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya. In other countries, such as Morocco and Jordan, monarchs were able to offer concessions to people and remain in control by delaying public spending cuts, for example, and replacing government ministers.

Yet sustaining stable democracies has proved challenging even where the Arab Spring seemed to succeed in changing political regimes. In Egypt, the military has reasserted itself and the country has slid steadily back to authoritarianism. In Yemen, the political vaccum created by the protests marked the start of a devastating civil war.

The average Freedom House democracy score for members of the Arab League is today 11.45 — the same as it was on the eve of the Iraq invasion.

It is hard to know if U.S. efforts at democracy promotion accelerated or delayed political change in the Middle East. It is hard to know if a different approach might have yielded better results. Yet, the data – at least as social scientists measure such things – strongly suggests that the vision of an Iraq as an inspiration for a democratic transformation of the Middle East has not come to pass.

Brian Urlacher, Department Chair and Professor, Political Science & Public Administration, University of North Dakota

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

How Melissa Joan Hart Gets Relief for Her Dry Eyes

Whether Melissa Joan Hart is on set directing her latest movie, recording an episode of her podcast or driving her kids to school, she is always on the move. When she first began experiencing dry, irritated eyes, she wasn’t sure how to relieve her symptoms. However, after a recommendation from her friend, she learned there was a line of eye lubricant products designed to relieve dry eye symptoms of eye dryness, burning, itching and discomfort.

“My eyes get dry and irritated, especially during long days on set when I’m spending hours staring at monitors,” Hart said. “I learned I am one of 35 million people in the United States who experience dry eyes. I didn’t know how I could find relief – until I discovered Refresh.”

Hart is teaming up with Allergan, an AbbVie company, to share her experience using the number one doctor-recommended family of products. The Refresh line was developed from more than 30 years of dedicated eye research and includes artificial tears, ointments and gel drops to relieve symptoms of eye dryness. The drops offer fast-acting relief for a wide range of individuals based on their symptoms and severity levels, including products for daytime, nighttime and anytime use.

“Many people experience eye dryness for many reasons and have different needs, which is why I like that the Refresh portfolio has several different products that offer fast-acting relief for a wide range of individuals,” Hart said. “Right now, I use Optive Mega-3 and Relieve PF Multidose to relieve my eye dryness and prevent further irritation. There’s a great tool on the Refresh website to help you figure out which product may be right for you.”

Hart continued, “Refresh has quickly become a part of my daily routine, on and off set. I have a few bottles tucked away in different rooms around the house and in my purse to use throughout the day. I don’t leave the house without them.”

Refresh eye drops can be found at all major retailers and online. Learn more at refreshbrand.com and take the quiz to see which product may help relieve your symptoms.  

Use only as directed. For US consumers only.

Source: Allergan, an AbbVie company.

SOURCE:
Allergan, an AbbVie company

A Heart-Healthy Family Meal

A Heart-Healthy Family Meal

(Family Features) Making small changes to focus on your health, like following a healthy eating plan, can make a big difference in protecting your heart.

Developed by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) is a flexible and balanced eating plan that helps create a heart-healthy eating style for life. It requires no special foods, and instead provides daily and weekly nutritional goals to help lower two major risk factors for heart disease: high blood pressure and high LDL (bad) cholesterol.

As an added bonus, sharing DASH-friendly meals with your loved ones can help take the guesswork out of putting nutritious dinners on your family’s table. For example, this easy and delicious Turkey and Beef Meatballs with Whole-Wheat Spaghetti recipe is one the entire family can help prepare.

In addition to a following a healthy eating plan, other self-care habits like taking time daily to destress, being more physically active and getting enough quality sleep can all benefit your heart. It’s also important to know what your blood pressure, cholesterol and blood sugar levels are and what a healthy weight is for you.

Learn more about the DASH eating plan and find recipes at nhlbi.nih.gov/DASH.

Turkey and Beef Meatballs with Whole-Wheat Spaghetti
Recipe courtesy of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Prep time: 20 minutes
Cook time: 20 minutes
Servings: 4

• 3          quarts water
• 8          ounces dry whole-wheat spaghetti
• 2          cups chunky tomato sauce
• 4          teaspoons grated Parmesan cheese
• 1          tablespoon fresh basil, rinsed, dried and chopped

Turkey Meatballs:

• 6          ounces 99% lean ground turkey
• 1/4       cup whole-wheat breadcrumbs
• 2          tablespoons fat-free evaporated milk
• 1          tablespoon grated Parmesan cheese
• 1/2       tablespoon fresh chives, rinsed, dried and chopped
• 1/2       tablespoon fresh parsley, rinsed, dried and chopped

Beef Meatballs:

• 6          ounces 93% lean ground beef
• 1/4       cup whole-wheat breadcrumbs
• 2          tablespoons fat-free evaporated milk
• 1          tablespoon grated Parmesan cheese
• 1/2       tablespoon fresh chives, rinsed, dried and chopped
• 1/2      tablespoon fresh parsley, rinsed, dried and chopped

1. Preheat oven to 400 F.
2. In 4-quart saucepan over high heat, bring water to boil.
3. Add pasta and cook according to package directions. Drain and set aside.
4. To make turkey meatballs: In bowl, combine ground turkey, breadcrumbs, evaporated milk, Parmesan cheese, chives and parsley; mix well. Measure 1 1/2 tablespoons turkey mixture and roll into ball using hands. Place meatball on nonstick baking sheet. Repeat until eight turkey meatballs are made.
5. To make beef meatballs: In separate bowl, combine ground beef, breadcrumbs, evaporated milk, Parmesan cheese, chives and parsley; mix well. Measure 1 1/2 tablespoons beef mixture and roll into ball using hands. Place meatball on nonstick baking sheet. Repeat until eight beef meatballs are made.
6. Bake meatballs 10 minutes until minimum internal temperature of 165 F is reached.
7. Warm sauce, if necessary.

To serve: Serve four meatballs with 3/4 cup pasta, 1/2 cup sauce, 1 teaspoon Parmesan cheese and 1 pinch basil per portion.

SOURCE:
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute