Archaeology and genomics together with Indigenous knowledge revise the human-horse story in the American West

Horses are an active part of life for the Lakota and many other Plains nations today. Jacquelyn Córdova/Northern Vision Productions

William Taylor, University of Colorado Boulder and Yvette Running Horse Collin, Université de Toulouse III – Paul Sabatier

Few places in the world are more closely linked with horses in the popular imagination than the Great Plains of North America. Romanticized stories of cowboys and the Wild West figure prominently in popular culture, and domestic horses are embedded in everything from place names, like Wild Horse Mesa, to sporting mascots, like the Denver Broncos.

Horses first evolved in the Americas around 4 million years ago. Then horses largely disappeared from the fossil record by about 10,000 years ago. However, archaeological finds from the Yukon to the Gulf Coast make it clear that horses were an important part of ancient lifeways for the early peoples of North America.

Millennia later, horses were reintroduced by European colonists, and eventually the Great Plains became home to powerful Indigenous horse cultures, many of which leveraged their expertise on horseback to maintain sovereignty even amid the rising tides of colonial exploitation, genocide and disease.

But how did horses become part of life on the Great Plains? And are there pieces of that story that may be missing from today’s popular narratives?

One of us is an archaeozoologist who studies ancient animal remains. The other is a Lakota scientist who specializes in ancient horse genomics and is expert in Indigenous oral traditions about horses. Together we created a large team of scientists and scholars from around the world, including those from Pueblo, Pawnee, Comanche and Lakota nations, and set out to see what archaeology, Indigenous knowledge systems and genomics together could tell us about the horse in the American West.

Horses have long been a part of Indigenous cultures in the American West. Ettore Mazza

Complicating the colonial version of the story

Over recent decades, the story of people and horses has largely been told through the lens of colonial history. One reason for this is logistical – European settlers often wrote down their observations, creating documentary records that partially chronicle the early relationships between colonists, Indigenous cultures and horses in the colonial West. Another reason, though, is prejudice: Indigenous peoples in the Americas have been excluded from telling their side of the story.

While historical records are a valuable tool for understanding the past, they also carry with them the biases and cultural context of the people who wrote them. Perhaps unsurprisingly, many such documents tend to minimize or dismiss the interactions between Native people and horses. More importantly, the written record’s scope is limited to those places European colonists visited – which, until the 18th and 19th centuries, excluded much of the Plains and the Rocky Mountains.

Filtering of Indigenous horse cultures through a European framework left narratives unrecognizable to many Indigenous peoples.

Many models for the origins of Indigenous horse use on the Plains focus on one particular date: the Pueblo Revolt of 1680. During this momentous uprising, Pueblo people living under harsh Spanish subjugation organized a rebellion that expelled Spanish colonists from New Mexico for more than a decade. Many historians link the revolt with the first spread of horses beyond the Southwest, because with the Spanish gone, so was their control over their livestock at colonial settlements.

Ancestral Comanche or Shoshone horse and rider image at Tolar in southern Wyoming. Pat Doak

However, other scholars who prioritize and understand Indigenous knowledge and scientific frameworks have questioned these assumptions, pointing out historical inconsistencies and highlighting oral traditions that support a deeper antiquity to the human-horse relationship among many Indigenous nations.

Over recent years, archaeology has emerged as a powerful tool for exploring aspects of the human-horse story that may not have been written down in books. In Mongolia, for example, our analysis of ancient horse bones has shown that steppe cultures herded, rode and cared for horses centuries before their first mention in historical records.

Our first studies in the western U.S. suggested there may be a rich archaeological record of horse remains in the West linked to Native cultures, even if this record was often overlooked or misclassified in museum collections.

Remains of horses provide their own clues

For our new study, published in the journal Science, we looked for horse remains in museum collections across the Western U.S., from Idaho to Kansas. These horses ranged from single, isolated bones to nearly complete horses, with incredible preservation.

Among the dozens of ancient horses we identified, precision radiocarbon dating revealed that several lived in the early 17th century or earlier – decades before the Pueblo Revolt of 1680, and in some areas, at least a century or more before the arrival of the first Europeans.

3D model of a horse cranium and replica rawhide bridle in the Archaeozoology Laboratory at the University of Colorado. William Taylor

We analyzed the ancient horses’ bones and found clues that across the Great Plains these early horses were not just present but already an important part of Indigenous societies. Some horses have skeletal features showing they were ridden or received veterinary care. Other information, like the method of burial or inclusion alongside other animals such as coyotes, shows horses were part of ceremonial practices.

We used isotope analysis to learn more about the ancient diet and movements of these animals by measuring heavier or lighter variants of molecules in their bones and teeth. We found that some of the earliest horses in southwestern Wyoming and northern Kansas were not escapees of Spanish expeditions but were instead raised locally by Native communities.

One baby horse we analyzed that lived in ancestral Comanche country around 1650 at Blacks Fork, Wyoming, was born and died locally – directly contradicting a 1724 European observation that the Comanche obtained horses only by “barter,” and “had not yet been able to raise any colts.” In another case, a horse that also lived in the mid-17th century along the Missouri River was likely fed during the winter with maize, an Indigenous domestic crop.

DNA sequencing of archaeological horses, although revealing Iberian ancestry, shows important connections between ancient horses and those stewarded by present-day communities like the Lakota, for whom horses continue to be a key part of ceremony, tradition and daily life. While future work will be necessary to establish exactly when and how horses reached northern areas of the Plains, our results point to Indigenous networks of trade and exchange – perhaps bringing horses across the Plains and Rockies from Mexico or the American Southwest.

New evidence supports old stories

Our findings also validate oral traditions for many of the Native communities affected by the study.

Graduate student and Lakota archaeologist Chance Ward analyzes horse remains in the Archaeozoology Laboratory at the University of Colorado-Boulder. Samantha Eads

Our study is the result of an intentionally collaborative approach. Our Lakota partners, led by Chief Joe American Horse and one of us (Collin), published an accompanying introduction to the Lakota relationship with horses that helped serve as a foundation for our collaborative work.

Partnering archaeological science and Native perspectives ended up telling a very different story of horses in the American West. Comanche tribal historian and elder Jimmy Arterberry noted, for example, that the archaeological discoveries from ancestrally connected areas of Wyoming “support and concur with Comanche oral tradition” that Comanche ancestors raised and cared for horses before their movement to the southern Plains.

We hope future work will continue to highlight the ancient connections between people and horses, and prompt a rethink of assumptions built into society’s understanding of the past.

William Taylor, Assistant Professor and Curator of Archaeology, University of Colorado Boulder and Yvette Running Horse Collin, Postdoctoral Researcher in Anthropobiology and Genomics, Université de Toulouse III – Paul Sabatier

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

When digital nomads come to town: governments want their cash but locals are being left behind – podcast

Digital nomads: ditch the office chair for a backpack. Jose Luis Carrascosa via Shutterstock

Gemma Ware, The Conversation and Mend Mariwany, The Conversation

Digital nomads who work as they travel are often attracted by a life of freedom far removed from the daily office grind. Many head to cities that have become known hotspots for remote workers. In this episode of The Conversation Weekly, we find out what impact digital nomads have on these cities and the people who live there, and how governments are responding to the phenomenon.

The La Roma and La Condesa districts of Mexico City have become some of the Mexican capital’s favourite destinations for visitors in recent years. There are long boulevards and the streets are lined with leafy trees and dotted with picturesque parks and fountains. Wander into the right coffee shops and here you’ll find some of the city’s digital nomads, logging on to remote jobs elsewhere.

Speaking to The Conversation Weekly, Erica from Finland tells us she was already working remotely before the pandemic. “Mexico is cheaper, it’s great weather,” she says. “So I figured I might as well move here.”

“The pandemic and the normalisation of remote work has certainly given the digital nomad lifestyle some legitimacy,” says Dave Cook, an anthropologist at University College London in the UK. He’s been chronicling digital nomads and their motivations for the past seven years, interviewing people about their motivations.

The pandemic also made governments take notice of digital nomads as an economic benefit to cash-strapped economies, says Fabiola Mancinelli, an anthropologist at the University of Barcelona in Spain who also studies digital nomads. “That’s why many countries started to create special visa programmes to attract this niche of travellers,” she explains. Countries don’t expect digital nomads to participate in local life, says Mancinelli, but rather to consume locally using the higher purchasing power they get from earning in stronger currencies.

In Mexico City, however, the arrival of digital nomads is angering some local residents who are worried about changes to their neighbourhoods and rising rents. Adrián Hernández Cordero, a sociologist at Metropolitan Autonomous University who studies gentrification, distinguishes between tourists and digital nomads. “They seem to me to be in an intermediate position because they don’t come just for a week – they stay for a few months,” he says.

In Mexico City, Cordero says digital nomads are drawn to areas such as La Roma and La Condesa where it’s easy to get around on foot or by public transport, and where there is a proliferation of restaurants and bars. He says that while these areas were already fairly well-off, the middle classes who live there are witnessing a form of “super-gentrification”.

Listen to the full episode to find out more about the different strategies countries are using to attract digital nomads, and what this means for local residents.

This episode was produced by Mend Mariwany, with sound design by Eloise Stevens. Voiceover by Alberto Rodríguez Alvarado. The executive producer was Gemma Ware. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. Read a transcript of this episode.

You can find us on Twitter @TC_Audio, on Instagram at theconversationdotcom or via email. You can also sign up to The Conversation’s free daily email here. Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed, or find out how else to listen here.

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Adrián Hernández Cordero is part of the National System of Researchers of the National Council for Science and Technology of the Government of Mexico. Dave Cook and Fabiola Mancinelli do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Gemma Ware, Editor and Co-Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation and Mend Mariwany, Producer, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Trump indictment won’t keep him from presidential race, but will make his reelection bid much harder

Former President Donald Trump has been indicted by a Manhattan grand jury. AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Stefanie Lindquist, Arizona State University

A Manhattan grand jury has voted to indict former President Donald Trump. The specific state charges, reports The New York Times, “remain a mystery” but will be related to the Manhattan district attorney’s investigation of Trump for making hush money payments to a porn star just before the 2016 presidential election.

It’s the first time a U.S. president or former president has been indicted.

At the same time, Trump is expected to continue his campaign for the presidency, seeking to regain in 2024 the position he lost in 2020 to Joe Biden.

What are the consequences of an indictment and potential trial for his campaign and, if his effort is successful, his future presidency?

Article II of the U.S. Constitution sets forth very explicit qualifications for the presidency: The president must be 35 years of age, a U.S. resident for 14 years and a natural-born citizen.

In cases involving analogous qualifications for members of Congress, the Supreme Court has held that such qualifications form a “constitutional ceiling” – prohibiting any additional qualifications to be imposed by any means.

Thus, because the Constitution does not require that the president be free from indictment, conviction or prison, it follows that a person under indictment or in prison may run for the office and may even serve as president.

This is the prevailing legal standard that would apply to former President Trump. The fact of his indictment and potential trial is irrelevant to his qualifications for office under the Constitution.

Nevertheless, there seems no question that indictment, conviction or both – let alone a prison sentence – would significantly compromise a president’s ability to function in office. And the Constitution doesn’t provide an easy answer to the problem posed by such a compromised chief executive.

Former President Donald Trump, at a campaign event at his Mar-a-Lago home on Nov. 15, 2022, in Palm Beach, Fla., when he announced he was seeking another term in office and officially launched his 2024 presidential campaign. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Governing from jail?

A presidential candidate could be indicted, prosecuted and convicted by either state or federal authorities. Indictment for a state crime may seem less significant than federal charges brought by the Department of Justice.

Ultimately, though, the spectacle of a criminal trial in state or federal court would have a dramatic effect on a presidential campaign and on the credibility of a president, if elected.

All defendants are presumed innocent until proved guilty. But in the case of conviction, incarceration in state or federal prison involves restrictions on liberty that would significantly compromise the president’s ability to lead.

This point – that functioning as president would be difficult while under indictment or after being convicted – was made plain in a 2000 memo written by the Department of Justice. The memo reflected on a 1973 Office of Legal Counsel memo produced during Watergate titled “Amenability of the President, Vice President and other Civil Officers to Federal Criminal Prosecution while in Office.” The background to the 1973 memo was that President Richard Nixon was under investigation for his role in the Watergate break-in and Vice President Spiro Agnew was under grand jury investigation for tax evasion.

These two memos addressed whether a sitting president could, under the Constitution, be indicted while in office. They concluded he could not. But what about a president indicted, convicted, or both, before taking office, as could be the case for Trump?

In evaluating whether a sitting president could be indicted or imprisoned while in office, both the 1973 and 2000 memos outlined the consequences of a pending indictment for the president’s functioning in office. The earlier memo used strong words: “[t]he spectacle of an indicted President still trying to serve as Chief Executive boggles the imagination.”

Even more pointedly, the memos observe that a criminal prosecution against a sitting president could result in “physical interference with the President’s performance of his official duties that it would amount to an incapacitation.”

The memo here refers to the inconvenience of a criminal trial that would significantly detract from the president’s time commitment to his burdensome duties.

But it’s also lawyer’s language to describe a more direct impediment to the president’s ability to govern: He might be in jail.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani arriving at the Fulton County Courthouse in Atlanta, Ga., on Aug. 17, 2022, to appear before the special grand jury investigating efforts to overturn the 2020 election. AP Photo/John Bazemore

Core functions affected

According to the 1973 memo, “the President plays an unparalleled role in the execution of the laws, the conduct of foreign relations, and the defense of the Nation.”

Because these core functions require meetings, communications or consultations with the military, foreign leaders and government officials in the U.S. and abroad in ways that cannot be performed while imprisoned, constitutional law scholar Alexander Bickel remarked in 1973 that “obviously the presidency cannot be conducted from jail.”

Modern presidents are peripatetic: They travel nationally and globally on a constant basis to meet with other national leaders and global organizations. They obviously wouldn’t be able to do these things while in prison. Nor could they inspect the aftermath of natural disasters from coast to coast, celebrate national successes and events or address citizens and groups on issues of the day, at least in person.

Moreover, presidents need access to classified information and briefings. But imprisonment would also obviously compromise a president’s ability to access such information, which must often be stored and viewed in a secure room that has been protected against all manner of spying, including blocking radio waves – not something that’s likely available in a prison.

As a result of the president’s varied duties and obligations, the memos concluded that “[t]he physical confinement of the chief executive following a valid conviction would indisputably preclude the executive branch from performing its constitutionally assigned functions.”

Translation: The president couldn’t do his job.

Running from prison

Yet what to do if citizens actually elect an indicted or incarcerated president?

This is not out of the question. At least one incarcerated presidential candidate, Eugene Debs, garnered almost a million votes out of a total 26.2 million cast in the election of 1920.

One potential response is the 25th Amendment, which enables the president’s Cabinet to declare the president “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”

The two Department of Justice memos note, however, that the framers of the 25th Amendment never considered or mentioned incarceration as a basis for the inability to discharge the powers and duties of the office. They write that replacing the president under the 25th Amendment would “give insufficient weight to the people’s considered choice as to whom they wish to serve as their chief executive.”

All this brings to mind Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes’ admonition about the role of the Supreme Court: “If my fellow citizens want to go to Hell I will help them. It’s my job.”

Holmes’ statement came in a letter reflecting on the Sherman Antitrust Act, which he thought was a foolish law. But Holmes was prepared to accept the popular will expressed through democracy and self-determination.

Perhaps the same reflection is apt here: If the people choose a president hobbled by criminal sanctions, that is a form of self-determination too. And one for which the Constitution has no ready solution.

Stefanie Lindquist, Foundation Professor of Law and Political Science, Arizona State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

4 Ways to Support and Uplift Women Around You

(Family Features) For many women, life is busy and moves at such a fast pace, it might seem to pass them by. Amid the hustle and bustle, it can be easy to forget to slow down to show encouragement and love toward influential women in your life, such as a daughter, neighbor or friend.

Here are a few ways to uplift and celebrate the women around you:

Share Your Time

Busy schedules and day-to-day responsibilities can make it hard for women to find time to nurture their friendships but offering support can be an invaluable way to help others feel grounded and cared for.

Letting the women in your circle know you’re thinking of them is a simple way to celebrate them. Try sending a text to check in, buying a latte or scheduling time to catch up to remind them they have a support system. You can also schedule an activity you know they love, like a cooking class or hike. Letting your friends know you care can make them feel loved and supported.

Share a Self-Care Kit

Whether it’s filled with bath salts and body scrubs for a night of relaxation or treats for a movie night with friends or family, consider putting together a self-care kit. To make it extra special, add something indulgent, such as DOVE Milk Chocolate Molten Lava Caramel PROMISES, treats inspired by rich and decadent molten lava dessert, perfect for enjoying on the go or during a moment of joy at home.

Take Responsibilities Off Their Plates

If friends or loved ones are going through a particularly busy time, consider lending a helping hand to lighten their load. Bring dinner, propose a playdate to provide free time or offer to help with some tasks if they seem overworked. Helping friends accomplish their goals allows them to feel supported, and many appreciate a check in to let them know you’re there for them.

Show Them You’re an Advocate

To show support for the ladies in your life, consider using your voice to uplift individuals and advocate for equality. Participating in a mentorship program, nominating loved ones for awards and grants to help them meet their goals and celebrating their wins are all helpful ways to advocate for the ladies in your life and the broader community.

 

Photos courtesy of Adobe Stock

 

SOURCE:
Dove Chocolate

Restaurant Evolution: How restaurants evolve to meet changing customer needs

In the highly competitive restaurant industry, it’s crucial to continually evolve and transform in order to stay relevant and attract customers. Restaurant transformation involves re-evaluating the image, menu, ambiance and overall experience. It’s a process that can be challenging, but when done successfully, it can lead to increased customer loyalty, improved sales and long-term growth.

Take for example Fogo de Chão, which has practiced the authentic, centuries-old Brazilian grilling practice of churrasco, or cooking over an open flame, since 1979 at more than 70 locations around the world. Each meal is about discovery with a menu that’s fresh, unique, innovative and centered around premium cuts of grilled proteins, expertly butchered and simply seasoned using the culinary art of churrasco.

The full churrasco experience includes continual service of fire-roasted meats carved tableside, including house specialties like picanha (signature sirloin), filet mignon, ribeye, fraldinha (bottom sirloin), cordeiro (lamb) and more.

Consumers are always looking for new and exciting dining experiences, and a menu refresh can provide it. This can involve adding new dishes, changing the way existing dishes are prepared or presented and incorporating current food trends. For example, many restaurants are offering more vegetarian and vegan options to cater to the growing number of consumers adopting plant-based diets.

Leaning into this trend, Fogo de Chão is expanding its menu and Market Table offerings with new plant-based and nutrient-dense dishes, alongside an expanded Bar Fogo beverage program complete with traditional and clean, zero-proof cocktails. The plant-based offerings include menu innovations like Seared Tofu with Miso Black Bean Pasta and a hearty Roasted Power Vegetable Bowl that complements a myriad of dietary lifestyles. Taking it a step further, guests can enjoy indulgent, premium cuts within the churrasco experience at no additional cost. This added value introduces guests to new flavors in a low-risk setting by including a variety of options like bone-in ribeye, double-cut pork chop and lamb picanha.

Another important aspect of transformation is redesigning the restaurant’s physical space. A restaurant’s ambiance can greatly impact customers’ dining experiences, and a refreshed decor can help to create a more modern, welcoming and comfortable environment. With new locations opening in markets coast-to-coast, the experiential dining experts are revamping interiors to create unique and architecturally led dining spaces that create a memorable hospitality experience. The additions of lounge and conversational seating for more comfortable dining, large patio spaces for al fresco dining and open kitchens help immerse guests in the experience, which appeals to the modern diner.

In addition to these changes, restaurants may also need to re-evaluate and adjust marketing strategies as their customer bases change. This may involve shifting branding to appeal to a younger demographic, for example, or focusing on a specific type of cuisine or dining experience. Designed to enhance the guest experience and move beyond just a sit-down dinner, the churrasco experience at Fogo de Chão appeals to a younger, highly diverse audience with 87% of guests being Millennial, Gen X and Gen Z customers, 41% of whom are female.

Options like Bar Fogo, which features All-Day Happy Hour; shareable Brazilian-inspired bar bites such as Lobster and Shrimp Tacos and Queijo Assado, a grilled Brazilian cheese served with malagueta honey; South American-inspired cocktails, beers and wine; or The Butchery, where premium cuts of meats, carved in the traditional Brazilian style, can be taken to go for cooking at home, allow for new ways to experience the traditional cuisine.

“Nearly 45 years ago, Fogo was created on the strong foundation of authentic Brazilian hospitality and delivering unique experiences to our guests,” said Barry McGowan, CEO of Fogo de Chão. “Today, we’ve evolved from a small restaurant in the countryside of southern Brazil to a global category leader celebrating the culinary art of churrasco. Restaurant transformation is necessary to stay competitive in today’s fast-paced and evolving industry. All of our transformation efforts continue to be rooted in innovation to enhance the guest experience while remaining true to our Brazilian heritage.”

Learn more and find a local restaurant near you at fogo.com.

 

SOURCE:
Fogo de Chão

Is the Western drought finally ending? That depends on where you look

California’s snowpack was more than twice the average in much of the state in early March 2023. Mario Tama/Getty Images

Dan McEvoy, Desert Research Institute

After three years of extreme drought, the Western U.S. is finally getting a break. Mountain ranges are covered in deep snow, and water reservoirs in many areas are filling up following a series of atmospheric rivers that brought record rain and snowfall to large parts of the region.

Many people are looking at the snow and water levels and asking: Is the drought finally over?

There is a lot of nuance to the answer. Where you are in the West and how you define “drought” make a difference. As a drought and water researcher at the Desert Research Institute’s Western Regional Climate Center, here’s what I’m seeing.

How fast each region recovers will vary

The winter of 2023 has made a big dent in improving the drought and potentially eliminating the water shortage problems of the last few summers.

I say “potentially” because in many areas, a lot of the impacts of drought tend to show up in summer, once the winter rain and snow stop and the West starts relying on reservoirs and streams for water. Spring heat waves like the ones we saw in 2021 or rain in the mountains could melt the snowpack faster than normal.

Atmospheric rivers in January brought heavy rain across large parts of the West. Another powerful storm system hit in March. Climate.gov

California and the Great Basin

In California, the state’s three-year precipitation deficit was just about erased by the atmospheric rivers that caused so much flooding in December and January. By March, the snowpack across the Sierra Nevada was well above the historical averages – and more than 200% of average in some areas. The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California announced it was ending emergency water restrictions for nearly 7 million people on March 15.

It seems as though most of the surface water drought – drought involving streams and reservoirs – could be eliminated by summer in California and the Great Basin, across Nevada and western Utah.

The early 2023 storms likely could have filled Lake Oroville, one of California’s largest reservoirs. But reservoirs are also essential for flood management, so managers balance how much water to retain and how much to release. NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin

But that’s only surface water. Drought also affects groundwater, and those effects will take longer to alleviate.

Studies in California have shown that, even after wet years like 2017 and 2019, the groundwater systems did not fully recover from the previous drought, in part because of years of overpumping groundwater for agriculture, and the aquifers were not fully recharging.

In that sense, the drought is not over. But at the broader scale for the region, a lot of the drought impacts that people experience will be lessened or almost gone by this summer.

The Colorado River Basin

Similar to the Sierra Nevada, the Upper Colorado River Basin – Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and northwestern New Mexico – has a healthy snowpack this year, and it’s looking like a very good water year there.

The snow water equivalent, a measure of snowpack, was over 200% of average in several areas on March 21, 2023. Drought.gov

But one single good water year is not going to fill Lake Mead and Lake Powell. Most of the region relies on those two reservoirs, which have declined to worrying levels over the past two decades.

Two good water years won’t do it either. Over the next decade, most years will have to be above average to begin to fill those giant reservoirs. Rising temperatures and drying will make that even harder.

So, that system is still going to be dealing with a lot of the same long-term drought impacts that it has been seeing. The reservoirs will likely rise some, but nowhere close to capacity.

The Pacific Northwest

The Pacific Northwest isn’t having as much rain and snow, and it’s a little drier there. But it’s close to average, so there’s not a huge concern there, at least not right now.

Forests, range land and the fire risk

Drought can also have longer-term impacts on ecosystems, particularly forest health.

The Sierra Nevada range has seen large-scale tree die-offs with the drought in recent years, including in northern areas around Lake Tahoe and Reno that weren’t as affected by the previous drought. Whether the recent die-offs there are due to the severity of the current drought or lingering effects from the past droughts is an open question.

Even with a wet winter, it’s not clear how soon the forests will recover.

Rangelands, since they are mostly grasses, can recover in a few months. The soil moisture is really high in a lot of these areas, so range conditions should be good across the West – at least going into summer.

Drought and bark beetles have killed millions of trees across California in recent years, contributing to wildfire risk. David McNew/Getty Images

If the West has another really hot, dry summer, however, the drought could ramp up again, particularly in the Northwest and California. And then communities will have to think about fire risk.

Right now, there’s a below-normal likelihood of big fires in the Southwest for early spring due to lots of soil moisture and snowpack.

In the higher-elevation mountains and forests, the above-average snowpack is likely to last longer than it has in recent years, so those regions will likely have a later start to the fire season. But lower elevations, like the Great Basin’s shrub- and grassland-dominated ecosystem, could see fire danger starting earlier in the year if the land dries out.

Long-term outlooks aren’t necessarily reliable

By a lot of atmospheric measures, California appears to be coming out of drought, and the drought feels like it’s ending elsewhere. But it’s hard to say when exactly the drought is over. Studies suggest the West’s hydroclimate is becoming more variable in its swings from drought to deluge.

Drought is also hard to forecast, particularly long term. Researchers can get a pretty good sense of conditions one month out, but the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and weather make longer-range outlooks less reliable.

We saw that this year. The initial forecast was for a dry winter 2023 in much of the West. But in California, Arizona and New Mexico, the opposite happened.

Seasonal forecasts tend to rely heavily on whether it’s an El Niño or La Niña year, involving sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific that can affect the jet stream and atmospheric conditions around the world. During La Niña – the pattern we saw from 2020 until March 2023 – the Southwest tends to be drier and the Pacific Northwest wetter.

NOAA explains El Niño and La Niña.

But that pattern doesn’t always set up in exactly the same way and in the same place, as we saw this year.

There is a lot more going on in the atmosphere and the oceans on a short-term scale that can dominate the La Niña pattern. This year’s series of atmospheric rivers has been one example.

Editor’s note: This article was updated on March 22, 2023, with the latest snowpack map.

Dan McEvoy, Associate Research Professor in Climatology, Desert Research Institute

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

This course uses science fiction to understand politics

Science fiction offers a glimpse of what governments of the world are – and can become. agsandrew via Getty Images

Nicole Pankiewicz, College of Coastal Georgia

Uncommon Courses is an occasional series from The Conversation U.S. highlighting unconventional approaches to teaching.

Title of course:

“Politics and Science Fiction”

What prompted the idea for the course?

While watching “Andor” – a science fiction TV series that is part of the “Star Wars” galaxy of films, books and TV shows – I realized that what fascinates me most about science fiction is the political aspect, especially regarding power.

I decided to create an upper-level political science course that explores politics and government through the lens of science fiction, with a focus on literature.

What does the course explore?

We explore issues of racism, gender, anarchy and the end of civilization. I chose books that encourage students to focus on the political aspects of each work. At the beginning of the course, I ask students how closely they connect science fiction and politics. At the end of the course, students have the opportunity to revisit and revise their response to that question. By that point, students have participated in discussions, written papers and completed short assignments that ask them to explore and articulate political themes in each book.

I find that students in this course begin to take science fiction more seriously as a political genre, and those who come into the class as new readers of science fiction learn to appreciate its many subgenres and perspectives.

Why is this course relevant now?

As numerous state legislatures seek to restrict what can be taught regarding many issues, including race, it’s important to understand the power structures behind racism. Science fiction is an ideal way to explore issues of power and oppression.

Derrick Bell, the author of “The Space Traders,” is one of the originators of critical race theory, which holds that racism has been codified in American law and society. Bell’s story blends science fiction and politics to illustrate how politicians could use the Constitution and the law to extend racist policies to an extreme degree, all for the benefit of white Americans.

What’s a critical lesson from the course?

In one of the writing assignments I ask students to compare the political themes of Ursula K. Le Guin’s “The Dispossessed” – including utopia, anarchy, gender and power – to another work of science fiction that they enjoy. The goal is to help them make connections to political perspectives in other science fiction works and to get them to reexamine a piece of science fiction they’re already familiar with.

This semester, students made comparisons to political themes in multiple science fiction formats and subgenres including “Star Wars,” “The Last of Us” and “The Hunger Games.”

What materials does the course feature?

• Ursula K. Le Guin’s “The Dispossessed,” a novel that closely examines anarchy, utopia and gender relations.

• Stanislaw Lem’s “The Futurological Congress,” a novel about a future in which the government uses hallucinogenic drugs to create the illusion of utopia.

• Naomi Alderman’s “The Power,” a novel that imagines a world in which women gain physical and political power.

What will the course prepare students to do?

This course is designed to expose students to themes in science fiction that will expand their understanding of politics and power. I ask students to explore and articulate the explicitly political aspects of science fiction. My goal is for students to leave the class with a new perspective on politics and government that will make politics more interesting to them and inform how they engage with works of science fiction, whether as books, movies or some other format.

Nicole Pankiewicz, Assistant Professor of Political Science, College of Coastal Georgia

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Lula and the world: what to expect from the new Brazilian foreign policy

Guilherme Casarões, São Paulo School of Business Administration (FGV/EAESP)

Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was scheduled to visit his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping at the end of March. Beijing would have been Lula’s fourth international destination in less than 100 days in office.

Lula had to cancel his trip, which was set to include 200 business people, after catching pneumonia. His administration had hoped the China visit would alleviate political pressure at home.

Since returning to the presidency (his previous term was 2003-2010), Lula has already been to visit partners in the South American trade bloc Mercosur, Argentina and Uruguay, and recently flew to Washington DC for conversations with US president Joe Biden and members of the Democratic party over infrastructure investments, trade and climate change.

Globetrotting seems like quite an effort for a 77-year-old, third-term president who faces a deeply divided society. But Lula does it with a smile on his face. Since he first took office 20 years ago, the former metalworker has risen to the challenge of international diplomacy as a natural negotiator with political charm.

Building political legitimacy

As Lula kicks off his third term, foreign policy will be a tool for building his own domestic political legitimacy. His reputation currently appears to be greater abroad than at home.

Always a determined player on the international stage, Lula’s administration spearheaded the construction of Unasur, a South American organisation set up to offset US economic and political power in the region. He also forged several alliances in the developing world.

Although Lula left office in 2010 with an impressive 83% approval rating, much of his political capital waned in the years that followed. This was largely thanks to his successor Dilma Rousseff’s pitiful economic performance and to the mounting accusations of graft against top figures in his Workers’ party.

But despite being indicted and imprisoned for corruption in early 2018 (at which point his domestic popularity plummeted), the admiration of foreign figures has endured. Some even visited Lula in prison, protesting what they called political persecution of the former president.

So, at the age of 77 – and with health problems – a big diplomatic play might be his best bet of leaving a presidential legacy.

Challenges of a new world order

But Brazil’s capacity as a meaningful international player will depend on the administration’s ability to navigate a world that is fundamentally different from the one of the early 2000s.

The country is not in its best shape, either. In the years following Lula’s first two terms, Brazil went through a decade of decline, introspection and isolation.

Much of this is down to his immediate predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro. On Bolsonaro’s watch, Brazil ranked second, at 700,000 recorded deaths, in total COVID fatalities. Massive areas of rainforest were burned, and the lands of the Yanomami indigenous people were devastated by large amounts of mining.

So, while Lula must capitalise on any residual international popularity to relaunch Brazil as a global player, he has a lot to do to restore his own country’s economy and to heal the wounds of a divided society.

Lula’s first task internationally – a tough challenge – is to strike a balance in his relationships with Washington and Beijing, Brazil’s two foremost partners. So far, his new administration’s even-handed strategy has worked fine. But if tensions between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping lead to further political instability – or if a Republican with a zero-sum approach to China gets elected in 2024, Brazil could find itself in a difficult position.

Lula has attempted to anticipate these problems by offering to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. It was a way to dodge criticism by western powers, who wanted Brazil to engage in military assistance to the Ukrainian government – while still preserving Brazil’s longstanding ties with Russia.

Lula’s take on the war is part of what researchers have dubbed “active non-alignment”. It is part of a broader Latin American strategy to safeguard policy space and instruments for national development strategies in an increasingly polarised international order. By offering itself as a high-profile mediator, Brazil wants to maintain trade and cooperation with all sides in the conflict.

Lula’s balancing trick

But Russian-Ukrainian peace appears to be a long way off – and it will hardly come via mediators from the developing world. If Lula wants to create a legacy, he needs to build on Brazil’s preexisting capacity, in both multilateral and regional terms.

One possible way is to restore Brazil’s activism at the United Nations. He must also reestablish cooperation in issues as diverse as climate change, biodiversity, indigenous rights, vaccines, food security and development.

Another way is to rebuild South American integration. Regional organisations such as Mercosur and Unasur could help bolster global supply chains in critical sectors like energy and food that have been disrupted by the war in Ukraine. To do so, Brazil must reclaim its role as the continent’s centre of economic gravity.

But there is an obstacle: Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. A persistent political, economic and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela has exposed the dangers of left-wing authoritarianism. Lula is one of the few leaders who have open channels with Maduro and may be able to help the country work towards a national reconciliation.

The question is whether Lula wants to get involved. Unlike left-wing leaders who recently rose to power in Chile and Colombia, Lula and the Workers’ party have been unapologetically sympathetic towards dictators such as Venezuela’s Maduro and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega.

Overcoming the Brazilian left’s outdated views on authoritarian socialism and anti-imperialism may be as daunting a challenge for the Lula administration as leaving a sound diplomatic legacy. But both steps are necessary if Lula really wants to make a difference in the region – and the world.

Guilherme Casarões, Professor of Political Science, São Paulo School of Business Administration (FGV/EAESP)

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Declines in math readiness underscore the urgency of math awareness

Math scores plummeted during the COVID-19 pandemic. What will it take to raise them back up? Ridofranz / iStock / Getty Images Plus

Manil Suri, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

When President Ronald Reagan proclaimed the first National Math Awareness Week in April 1986, one of the problems he cited was that too few students were devoted to the study of math.

“Despite the increasing importance of mathematics to the progress of our economy and society, enrollment in mathematics programs has been declining at all levels of the American educational system,” Reagan wrote in his proclamation.

Nearly 40 years later, the problem that Reagan lamented during the first National Math Awareness Week – which has since evolved to become “Mathematics and Statistics Awareness Month” – not only remains but has gotten worse.

Whereas 1.63%, or about 16,000, of the nearly 1 million bachelor’s degrees awarded in the U.S. in the 1985-1986 school year went to math majors, in 2020, just 1.4%, or about 27,000, of the 1.9 million bachelor’s degrees were awarded in the field of math – a small but significant decrease in the proportion.

Post-pandemic data suggests the number of students majoring in math in the U.S. is likely to decrease in the future.

A key factor is the dramatic decline in math learning that took place during the lockdown. For instance, whereas 34% of eighth graders were proficient in math in 2019, test data shows the percentage dropped to 26% after the pandemic.

These declines will undoubtedly affect how much math U.S. students can do at the college level. For instance, in 2022, only 31% of graduating high school seniors were ready for college-level math – down from 39% in 2019.

These declines will also affect how many U.S. students are able to take advantage of the growing number of high-paying math occupations, such as data scientists and actuaries. Employment in math occupations is projected to increase by 29% in the period from 2021 to 2031.

About 30,600 math jobs are expected to open up per year from growth and replacement needs. That exceeds the 27,000 or so math graduates being produced each year – and not all math degree holders go into math fields. Shortages will also arise in several other areas, since math is a gateway to many STEM fields.

For all of these reasons and more, as a mathematician who thinks deeply about the importance of math and what it means to our world – and even to our existence as human beings – I believe this year, and probably for the foreseeable future, educators, policymakers and employers need to take Mathematics and Statistics Awareness Month more seriously than ever before.

Struggles with mastery

Subpar math achievement has been endemic in the U.S. for a long time.

Data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress shows that no more than 26% of 12th graders have been rated proficient in math since 2005.

The pandemic disproportionately affected racially and economically disadvantaged groups. During the lockdown, these groups had less access to the internet and quiet studying spaces than their peers. So securing Wi-Fi and places to study are key parts of the battle to improve math learning.

Some people believe math teaching techniques need to be revamped, as they were through the Common Core, a new set of educational standards that stressed alternative ways to solve math problems. Others want a return to more traditional methods. Advocates also argue there is a need for colleges to produce better-prepared teachers.

Other observers believe the problem lies with the “fixed mindset” many students have – where failure leads to the conviction that they can’t do math – and say the solution is to foster a “growth” mindset – by which failure spurs students to try harder.

Although all these factors are relevant, none address what in my opinion is a root cause of math underachievement: our nation’s ambivalent relationship with mathematics.

Low visibility

Many observers worry about how U.S. children fare in international rankings, even though math anxiety makes many adults in the U.S. steer clear of the subject themselves.

Mathematics is not like art or music, which people regularly enjoy all over the country by visiting museums or attending concerts. It’s true that there is a National Museum of Mathematics in New York, and some science centers in the U.S. devote exhibit space to mathematics, but these can be geographically inaccessible for many.

A 2020 study on media portrayals of math found an overall “invisibility of mathematics” in popular culture. Other findings were that math is presented as being irrelevant to the real world and of little interest to most people, while mathematicians are stereotyped to be singular geniuses or socially inept nerds, and white and male.

Math is tough and typically takes much discipline and perseverance to succeed in. It also calls for a cumulative learning approach – you need to master lessons at each level because you’re going to need them later.

While research in neuroscience shows almost everyone’s brain is equipped to take up the challenge, many students balk at putting in the effort when they don’t score well on tests. The myth that math is just about procedures and memorization can make it easier for students to give up. So can negative opinions about math ability conveyed by peers and parents, such as declarations of not being “a math person.”

A positive experience

Here’s the good news. A 2017 Pew poll found that despite the bad rap the subject gets, 58% of U.S. adults enjoyed their school math classes. It’s members of this legion who would make excellent recruits to help promote April’s math awareness. The initial charge is simple: Think of something you liked about math – a topic, a puzzle, a fun fact – and go over it with someone. It could be a child, a student, or just one of the many adults who have left school with a negative view of math.

Math exercise for shells can be downloaded at https://www.manilsuri.com/assets/shell_patterns.pptx. Manil Suri, Author provided

Can something that sounds so simplistic make a difference? Based on my years of experience as a mathematician, I believe it can – if nothing else, for the person you talk to. The goal is to stimulate curiosity and convey that mathematics is much more about exhilarating ideas that inform our universe than it is about the school homework-type calculations so many dread.

Raising math awareness is a first step toward making sure people possess the basic math skills required not only for employment, but also to understand math-related issues – such as gerrymandering or climate change – well enough to be an informed and participating citizen. However, it’s not something that can be done in one month.

Given the decline in both math scores and the percentage of students studying math, it may take many years before America realizes the stronger relationship with math that President Reagan’s proclamation called for during the first National Math Awareness Week in 1986.

Manil Suri, Professor of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.