Why Britain’s new CPTPP trade deal will not make up for Brexit

UNIKYLUCKK/Shutterstock

Terence Huw Edwards, Loughborough University and Mustapha Douch, The University of Edinburgh

The UK recently announced that it will join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), giving British businesses access to the 11 other members of the Indo-Pacific trade bloc and bringing its combined GDP to £11 trillion.

Some commentators have suggested the deal could make up for Brexit. It’s been called “a momentous economic and strategic moment” that “kills off any likelihood that it [the UK] will ever rejoin the EU customs union or single market”. Shanker Singham of think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs has even said: “it’s no exaggeration to say that CPTPP+UK is an equivalent economic power to the EU-28-UK”, comparing it to a trade deal between the UK and EU members.

UK business and trade secretary Kemi Badenoch echoed such sentiments, telling Times Radio:

We’ve left the EU so we need to look at what to do in order to grow the UK economy and not keep talking about a vote from seven years ago.

The problem with this fanfare is that the government’s own economic analysis of the benefits of joining this bloc is underwhelming. There is an estimated gain to the UK of 0.08% of GDP – this is just a 50th of the OBR’s estimate of what Brexit has cost the UK economy to date. Even for those that are sceptical about models and forecasts, that is an enormous difference in magnitude.

Of course, the CPTPP is expected to offer the UK some real gains. It certainly provides significant potential opportunities for some individual exporters. But the estimated gains for Britain overall are very small.

The main reason for this is that, apart from Japan, the major players of the global economy are not in the CPTPP. The US withdrew from the Trans Pacific Partnership (the CPTPP is what the remaining members formed without it). And China started negotiations to join in 2022, but current geopolitics now make its entry highly improbable. India was never involved.

In addition, the UK already has free trade agreements with nine out of the 11 members. The remaining two, Malaysia and Brunei, are controversial due to environmental threats from palm oil production to rainforests and orangutans.

Britain’s existing trade agreements with CPTPP members

Author provided using GDP data from the World Bank and trade data from UN Comtrade.

And despite the widespread public perception of the Asia-Pacific area as a hub of future growth, the performance and prospects of the CPTPP members are a mixed bag. The largest member, Japan, is arguably in long-term decline, as is Brunei, while just three members (Vietnam, Singapore and New Zealand had average growth in the last decade above 3% annually.

Finally, distance really does matter in trade. All the CPTPP members are thousands of miles from the UK, which explains their relatively small shares in UK trade at present.

Some benefits of CPTPP

While all of these points pour cold water on the suggested gains, there are some potential benefits from the CPTPP agreement, which allows for mutual recognition of certain standards. This includes patents and some relaxation of sanitary and phytosanitary rules on food items.

However, agreements over standards will involve the UK submitting to international CPTPP courts on these issues. This sits uncomfortably with many of the “sovereignty” objections to the European Court of Justice in relation to Brexit (largely from many of those who have extolled the CPTPP). It’s also notable that out of the nine agreements with CPTPP members that existed before the UK signed this deal, all but two are rollovers of previous EU deals.

But a trade deal with the CPTPP is worth more to the UK than separate deals with each member due to requirements around “rules of origin”, which determine the national source of a product. When a product contains inputs from more than one country, a series of separate free trade agreements may not eliminate tariffs. But if all the relevant countries are members of a single free trade agreement, then rules of origin on inputs from other members cease to be a problem (although there might be some issues if some members do not police the requirements properly).

Not the ideal agreement

While these benefits should be recognised, we should also acknowledge that the CPTPP is not the ideal agreement for Britain. As stated above, distance really does matter in trade – this is overwhelmingly accepted by modern trade economists.

Research shows that the rate at which trade declines with distance has barely changed over more than a century. This might seem strange because transport costs have fallen over time. But, as transport and communications have improved, firms have outsourced much of their production to complex supply chains that often cross national borders many times, with “just-in-time” supply schedules to keep down the costs of holding large stocks.

This means that, while trade everywhere has grown, there is still a big premium for trading (many times) across borders between contiguous countries. It is exactly this type of trade which benefits most from big comprehensive trade agreements that simplify rules of origin and regulatory paperwork.

This suggests that, while some elements of the the CPTPP offer benefits to the UK, it is unlikely to boost its trade in the way it does between countries around the Pacific Rim. For this sort of boost, the UK really needs to look towards its own neighbours. Of course, this is just the sort of agreement that Badenoch seems reluctant to discuss.

Terence Huw Edwards, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Loughborough University and Mustapha Douch, Assistant Professor in Economics, The University of Edinburgh

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

A Spring Spread Any Bunny Can Create

(Culinary.net) With spring in the air, it’s the perfect time to invite guests over for a hopping party. It’s also a great opportunity to tackle that dreadful spring cleaning and spruce up your living spaces with vibrant decor for visitors to enjoy alongside a delicious recipe.

With this sweet, colorful table arrangement, your whole family can get into the spring spirit. From festive utensils, a bright centerpiece and cute snacks, your spring setup can be fresh and fabulous.

It’s simple to put together and easy on the budget. Pair it with appetizers or even a main dish for a full spring party spread that’s sure to impress.

Find more springtime recipes at Culinary.net.

Watch video to see how to create this Spring Table Spread!

Chick Cheese Balls

Recipe adapted from Hallmark.com
Yield: 10 chicks

• 1          package cream cheese
• 1/4       tablespoon garlic powder
• 1          tablespoon Worcestershire sauce
• 1/2       lemon, juice only
• salt, to taste
• pepper, to taste
• 1          cup finely shredded cheddar cheese
• crackers
• carrots
• whole black peppercorns

1. Using mixer, combine cream cheese, garlic powder, Worcestershire sauce and lemon juice. Add salt and pepper, to taste. Refrigerate mixture 1 hour.
2. Using fingers, form about 1 tablespoon of cream cheese mixture at a time into balls. Refrigerate 30 minutes on small baking sheet.
3. Before serving, roll each ball into shredded cheddar cheese to cover. Place each ball on round cracker.
4. Cut small triangles from carrots for beaks and feet. Press carrots onto cheese balls. Add peppercorns for eyes.

Carrot Utensils

• Orange napkins
• green plastic silverware
• green ribbon

1. Lay napkins flat on table. Place one of each utensil in napkin facing top corner. Wrap napkin around utensils. Tie ribbon around middle of napkin. Place in bowl or basket on table.

Spring Table Centerpiece

Recipe adapted from Craftmorning.com

• Jelly beans
• chocolate coated candy eggs
• marshmallow chicks
• fresh or fake flowers
• plastic or dyed eggs (optional)

1. Place medium bowl inside large dish. Pour jelly beans and chocolate coated candy eggs around bowl.
2. Add marshmallow chicks around dish on top of candies. Arrange fresh or fake flowers in center. Set on table as centerpiece. Place eggs around dish, if desired.

SOURCE:
Culinary.net

Ukraine invasion threatens international collaboration in space and shows how power structures are changing – podcast

Russia threatened to withdraw from the International Space Station over sanctions imposed on the country following its invasion of Ukraine. 3Dsculptor via Shutterstock

Daniel Merino, The Conversation and Gemma Ware, The Conversation

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is challenging the structures of international collaboration in space. In this episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, we talk to two experts about how space is entering a new era of international competition – and whether the existing laws are ready for what comes next.

Space has historically been a surprisingly collaborative place. Even during the height of the cold war, the Soviet Union and the US made decisions that were mutually beneficial to both nations. As more nations developed their own space agencies in the last decades of the 20th century, the era of international collaboration in space put forth its crown jewel, the International Space Station (ISS).

A remarkable system of agreements and laws allow more than a dozen different countries to run such a complicated feat of science in orbit. But as David Kuan-Wei Chen, the executive director of the Center for Research in Air and Space Law at McGill University in Canada, explains, the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is putting this cooperation to the test, with Russia threatening to withdraw from the ISS. “Like all international agreements, these provisions are in place to prevent the unnecessary escalation of political disputes which threaten to completely derail 20 to 30 years of unprecedented cooperation in space,” he says.

The ISS may be the most high-profile recent dispute in space, but in the last decade or two, there’s been a subtle yet important shift in how nations approach missions in space. Svetla Ben-Itzhak is a professor of space and international relations at Air University in the US and has a name for the emerging system. “In the past, we had individual countries leading in space. However, now most countries are not acting alone. The trend has been that countries that partner on the ground also come together to accomplish specific missions in space. I call these formations space blocs,” she says.

Instead of individual countries collaborating on big scientific missions, now groups of allied nations are competing against each other.

In the full episode of the podcast, we talk to Ben-Itzhak about how space blocs emerged, why they are likely to be the main avenue of power in the future and what this means for the prospects of war in space. Then, with Chen we explore whether existing space law is adequate to meet the challenges in space today and how two future missions to the Moon highlight all the gray areas of what is legal and what isn’t once you leave Earth.

This episode of The Conversation Weekly was produced by Gemma Ware, with sound design by Eloise Stevens. Our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. You can find us on Twitter @TC_Audio, on Instagram at theconversationdotcom or via email. You can also sign up to The Conversation’s free daily email here.

Newsclips in this episode are from WION, BBC News, CBS News, ABC News, France24 English, CBS Evening News and the Associated Press.

You can listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed, or find out how else to listen here.

Daniel Merino, Assistant Science Editor & Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation and Gemma Ware, Editor and Co-Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Racist and sexist depictions of human evolution still permeate science, education and popular culture today

Human evolution is typically depicted with a progressive whitening of the skin, despite a lack of evidence to support it. Viktor Mikhailovich Vasnetsov/Wikimedia Commons

Rui Diogo, Howard University

Systemic racism and sexism have permeated civilization since the rise of agriculture, when people started living in one place for a long time. Early Western scientists, such as Aristotle in ancient Greece, were indoctrinated with the ethnocentric and misogynistic narratives that permeated their society. More than 2,000 years after Aristotle’s writings, English naturalist Charles Darwin also extrapolated the sexist and racist narratives he heard and read in his youth to the natural world.

Darwin presented his biased views as scientific facts, such as in his 1871 book “The Descent of Man,” where he described his belief that men are evolutionarily superior to women, Europeans superior to non-Europeans and hierarchical civilizations superior to small egalitarian societies. In that book, which continues to be studied in schools and natural history museums, he considered “the hideous ornaments and the equally hideous music admired by most savages” to be “not so highly developed as in certain animals, for instance, in birds,” and compared the appearance of Africans to the New World monkey Pithecia satanas.

Science isn’t immune to sexism and racism.

“The Descent of Man” was published during a moment of societal turmoil in continental Europe. In France, the working class Paris Commune took to the streets asking for radical social change, including the overturning of societal hierarchies. Darwin’s claims that the subjugation of the poor, non-Europeans and women was the natural result of evolutionary progress were music to the ears of the elites and those in power within academia. Science historian Janet Browne wrote that Darwin’s meteoric rise within Victorian society did not occur despite his racist and sexist writings but in great part because of them.

It is not coincidence that Darwin had a state funeral in Westminster Abbey, an honor emblematic of English power, and was publicly commemorated as a symbol of “English success in conquering nature and civilizing the globe during Victoria’s long reign.”

Despite the significant societal changes that have occurred in the last 150 years, sexist and racist narratives are still common in science, medicine and education. As a teacher and researcher at Howard University, I am interested in combining my main fields of study, biology and anthropology, to discuss broader societal issues. In research I recently published with my colleague Fatimah Jackson and three medical students at Howard University, we show how racist and sexist narratives are not a thing of the past: They are still present in scientific papers, textbooks, museums and educational materials.

From museums to scientific papers

One example of how biased narratives are still present in science today is the numerous depictions of human evolution as a linear trend from darker and more “primitive” human beings to more “evolved” ones with a lighter skin tone. Natural history museums, websites and UNESCO heritage sites have all shown this trend.

The fact that such depictions are not scientifically accurate does not discourage their continued circulation. Roughly 11% of people living today are “white,” or European descendants. Images showing a linear progression to whiteness do not accurately represent either human evolution or what living humans look like today, as a whole. Furthermore, there is no scientific evidence supporting a progressive skin whitening. Lighter skin pigmentation chiefly evolved within just a few groups that migrated to non-African regions with high or low latitudes, such as the northern regions of America, Europe and Asia.

Illustrations of human evolution tend to depict progressive skin whitening.

Sexist narratives also still permeate academia. For example, in a 2021 paper on a famous early human fossil found in the Sierra de Atapuerca archaeological site in Spain, researchers examined the canine teeth of the remains and found that it was actually that of a girl between 9 and 11 years old. It was previously believed that the fossil was a boy due to a popular 2002 book by one of the authors of that paper, paleoanthropologist José María Bermúdez de Castro. What is particularly telling is that the study authors recognized that there was no scientific reason for the fossil remains to have been designated as a male in the first place. The decision, they wrote, “arose randomly.”

But these choices are not truly “random.” Depictions of human evolution frequently only show men. In the few cases where women are depicted, they tend to be shown as passive mothers, not as active inventors, cave painters or food gatherers, despite available anthropological data showing that pre-historical women were all those things.

Another example of sexist narratives in science is how researchers continue to discuss the “puzzling” evolution of the female orgasm. Darwin constructed narratives about how women were evolutionarily “coy” and sexually passive, even though he acknowledged that females actively select their sexual partners in most mammalian species. As a Victorian, it was difficult for him to accept that women could play an active part in choosing a partner, so he argued that such roles only applied to women in early human evolution. According to Darwin, men later began to sexually select women.

Sexist narratives about women being more “coy” and “less sexual,” including the idea of the female orgasm as an evolutionary puzzle, are contradicted by a wide range of evidence. For instance, women are the ones who actually more frequently experience multiple orgasms as well as more complex, elaborate and intense orgasms on average, compared to men. Women are not biologically less sexual, but sexist stereotypes were accepted as scientific fact.

The vicious cycle of systemic racism and sexism

Educational materials, including textbooks and anatomical atlases used by science and medical students, play a crucial role in perpetuating biased narratives. For example, the 2017 edition of “Netter Atlas of Human Anatomy,” commonly used by medical students and clinical professionals, includes about 180 figures that show skin color. Of those, the vast majority show male individuals with white skin, and only two show individuals with “darker” skin. This perpetuates the depiction of white men as the anatomical prototype of the human species and fails to display the full anatomical diversity of people.

Textbooks and educational materials can perpetuate the biases of their creators in science and society.

Authors of teaching materials for children also replicate the biases in scientific publications, museums and textbooks. For example, the cover of a 2016 coloring book entitled “The Evolution of Living Things”“ shows human evolution as a linear trend from darker "primitive” creatures to a “civilized” Western man. Indoctrination comes full circle when the children using such books become scientists, journalists, museum curators, politicians, authors or illustrators.

One of the key characteristics of systemic racism and sexism is that it is unconsciously perpetuated by people who often don’t realize that the narratives and choices they make are biased. Academics can address long-standing racist, sexist and Western-centric biases by being both more alert and proactive in detecting and correcting these influences in their work. Allowing inaccurate narratives to continue to circulate in science, medicine, education and the media perpetuates not only these narratives in future generations, but also the discrimination, oppression and atrocities that have been justified by them in the past.

Rui Diogo, Associate Professor of Anatomy, Howard University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Donald Trump: polling suggests criminal charges won’t dampen his support

Dafydd Townley, University of Portsmouth

Donald Trump’s impending court case marks a historic moment in US politics. He will be the first former president of the United States to face criminal charges and trial by a jury. He and his supporters are already calling the case a political manoeuvre designed to reduce his chances in the 2024 presidential election.

The court case will affect his campaign but it will not exclude him for running for office next year. Early indications suggest that his political base will continue to rally around him. Within hours of the news, his followers were gathering outside his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida to express their support.

The indictment comes after a grand jury in New York agreed that there was enough evidence to charge the former president. The investigation, led by Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg, looked into the legality of hush money payments to former adult film star Stormy Daniels.

The exact nature of the charges will not be known until Trump is arraigned next week. According to US reports, he is likely to be accused of more than one count of falsifying business records (classed as a misdemeanour, a lesser crime in the US legal system), after Trump allegedly recorded the payment as a business expense. If found guilty, he could face a fine.

He might also be charged with breaking election campaign laws, which is a more serious felony offence and carries a potential prison sentence. Trump has denied any wrongdoing.

Any criminal charges, or even a jail sentence, would not restrict Trump from running for office under the US constitution. He has previously stated that he would do so even if he was charged. Historically, there are instances of individuals running for president while facing charges or even from a prison cell.

Problems for campaign

What may affect his chances is the amount of time that he will need to commit to dealing with the charges laid against him. To date, his campaign has been relatively quiet, but it will need to gain momentum in the lead up to the Republican convention in July 2024.

On March 25 and 26, Trump held his first campaign rally for the 2024 election at Waco, Texas. Despite predicting that he would be arrested, thousands turned up to show their support.

Claiming that the 2024 election would be “the final battle”, Trump criticised the prospects of potential challengers, such as Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, and stated that the investigation was like something out of Stalinist Russia. He told his supporters “from the beginning it has been one witch-hunt and phony investigation after another”.

Popularity in the polls

Trump’s immense popularity with Republicans is unlikely to be damaged by any indictment resulting from the New York investigation. One poll showed that most Republicans believe that the investigation is politically motivated, while another indicated that most Americans think that Trump will be acquitted of the charges.

The Harvard/Harris poll shows that popular support for the charges is split along party lines – 80% of Democrats believe he should be indicted, while 80% of Republicans believe he should not. And 57% of Republicans think a trial could help Trump in the election run.

Republicans lawmakers have already come out in support of Trump. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said that the indictment was an “unprecedented abuse of power”. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise tweeted that the charges were “one of the clearest examples of extremist Democrats weaponizing government to attack their political opponents”.

Even Trump’s potential rivals for the 2024 nomination have come out in support of the former president. DeSantis said the charges were “un-American” and a “weaponization of the legal system”, while Pence called the indictment “an outrage”.

For many observers, the question remains: why does Trump still figure so highly in the Republican polls after everything that has happened?

A Harvard/Harris poll from mid March, shows that Trump has increased his favourability among Republican voters to 50%, giving him a 26-point lead over DeSantis, if the presidential nomination was decided now. Former vice president Mike Pence is a distant third with just 7%. A more recent Fox News poll estimates the gap between Trump and DeSantis to be even greater at 30%.

Worryingly for Democrats, those polled of all political persuasions give Trump a four-point lead over Biden. There is a glimmer of hope for the Democrats, though, in that 14% of those polled were undecided on either Trump or Biden. It’s a significant number, and those individuals will be key to deciding who wins the election in November next year.

Trump’s immense popularity with Republicans is unlikely to be damaged by any indictment resulting from the New York investigation. This is because the Republican Party is still the party of Donald Trump. His base support has never fluctuated since 2016. Many of them feel he stands up for them when no-one else does.

His Republican opponents, such as DeSantis, are trying to outdo Trump at being Trump. But they are pale imitations, and Trump knows this.

Earlier this year, Trump told the crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference: “I am your warrior, I am your justice.” And they believe that. His supporters believe that he is the only person capable of protecting their values and way of life.

In a supporting speech at Waco, Trump-ally, Representative Marjorie Taylor-Greene said: “Trump is the man for the hour. He’s the only man who can take on Washington in the times that we live in.”

While the indictment might make some moderate Republicans rethink their loyalty to the former president, his base will back him to the bitter end.

Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of Portsmouth

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

One way to speed up clinical trials: Skip right to the data with electronic medical records

It takes around 17 years for medical research to translate into clinical practice. shapecharge/E+ via Getty Images

Kevin Kip, University of Pittsburgh; Erin McCreary, University of Pittsburgh, and Oscar Marroquin, University of Pittsburgh

Scientific knowledge, as measured by numbers of papers published, has been estimated to double every 17.3 years. However, it takes an average of about 17 years for health and medical research – going from basic lab studies on cell cultures and animals to clinical trials in people – to result in actual changes patients see in the clinic.

The typical process of medical research is generally not well equipped to respond effectively to quickly evolving pandemics. This has been especially evident for the COVID-19 pandemic, in part because the virus the causes COVID-19 mutates frequently. Scientists and public health officials are often left continually scrambling to develop and test new treatments to match emerging variants.

Fortunately, scientists may be able to bypass the typical research timeline and study treatments and interventions as they are used in the clinic nearly in real time by leveraging a common source of existing data – electronic medical records, or EMRs.

We are a team composed of an epidemiologist, pharmacist and cardiologist at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. During the COVID-19 pandemic, we realized the need to quickly study and disseminate accurate information on the most effective treatment approaches, especially for patients at high risk of hospitalization and death. In our recently published research, we used EMR data to show that early treatment with one or more of five different monoclonal antibodies substantially reduced the risk of hospitalization or death compared with delayed or no treatment.

EMRs contain a wealth of clinical data that could be used for research. Reza Estakhrian/The Image Bank via Getty Images

Using EMR data for research

In the U.S., health care systems typically use EMR systems for documenting patient care and for administrative purposes like billing. While data collection is not uniform, these systems typically contain detailed records that can include sociodemographic information, medical history, test results, surgical and other procedures, prescriptions and billing charges.

Unlike single-payer health care systems that integrate data into a single EMR system, such as in the U.K. and in Scandinavian countries, many large health care systems in the U.S. collect patient data using multiple EMR systems.

Having multiple EMR systems adds a layer of complexity to using such data to conduct scientific research. To address this, the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center developed and maintains a clinical data warehouse that compiles and harmonizes data across the seven different EMR systems its 40 hospitals and outpatient clinics use.

Emulating clinical trials

Using EMR data for research is not new. More recently, researchers have been looking into ways to use these large health data systems to emulate randomized controlled trials, which are considered the gold standard study design yet are often costly and take years to complete.

Using this emulation framework, our team used the EMR data infrastructure at our institution to evaluate five different monoclonal antibodies for which the Food and Drug Administration granted emergency use authorization to treat COVID-19. Monoclonal antibodies are human-made proteins designed to prevent a pathogen – in this case the virus that causes COVID-19 – from entering human cells, replicating and causing serious illness. Initially the authorizations were based on clinical trial data. But as the virus mutated, subsequent evaluations based on cell culture studies suggested a loss of effectiveness.

EMR data could be used to confirm that the results of cell culture studies would apply in the clinic. Solskin/DigitalVision via Getty Images

We wanted to confirm that the findings of cell-based studies applied to actual patients. So we evaluated anonymous clinical data from 2,571 patients treated with these monoclonal antibodies within two days of COVID-19 infection, matching them with data from 5,135 patients with COVID-19 who were eligible for but either did not receive these treatments or received them three or more days after infection.

We found that overall, people who received monoclonal antibodies within two days of a positive COVID-19 test reduced their risk of hospitalization or death by 39% compared with those who did not receive the treatment or received delayed treatment. In addition, patients with compromised immune systems reduced their risk of hospitalization or death by 55%, regardless of their age.

Our near-real-time analysis of COVID-19 patients treated with monoclonal antibodies during the pandemic confirmed the findings of the cell culture studies. Our findings suggest that by using data in this way, researchers may be able to evaluate treatments in times of urgency without having to perform clinical trials.

Appropriate EMR data use

Many health care institutions have EMR systems that researchers can harness to rapidly answer important research questions as they arise. However, because this clinical data is not specifically collected for research purposes, researchers need to carefully design their studies and use rigorous data validation and analysis. They also need to take great care to harmonize data from different EMR systems, select appropriate patient samples and minimize all sources of potential bias.

New pandemics and significant public health challenges are likely to emerge abruptly and in unpredictable ways. Given the treasure trove of data routinely collected across U.S. health care systems, we believe that careful use of these data can help answer urgent health questions in ways that are representative of who’s actually receiving care.

Kevin Kip, Vice President of Clinical Analytics, University of Pittsburgh; Erin McCreary, Clinical Assistant Professor of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, and Oscar Marroquin, Associate Professor of Medicine, Epidemiology and Clinical and Translational Science, University of Pittsburgh

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Countries agreed to ban ozone-depleting chemicals in the 1980s – but we found five CFCs increasing to record levels in the atmosphere

Luke Western, University of Bristol and Johannes Laube, University of East Anglia

Despite a global ban in place since 2010, atmospheric concentrations of five ozone-depleting chemicals have reached a record high.

Chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, are entirely man-made gases used in a variety of applications, including refrigeration, air conditioning or as chemical solvents. They have been increasingly regulated by a series of international treaties since the 1980s. The 1987 Montreal protocol, which has been universally ratified, restricted the release of CFCs to the atmosphere where they contribute to the destruction of the ozone layer: a region high up in the stratosphere which absorbs harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation and protects life below.

The goal of the Montreal protocol was to induce a decline in the atmospheric CFC concentration through controlling, and increasingly restricting, the production of these chemicals. This has worked well for many ozone-depleting substances, which is why the ozone layer is slowly recovering. And so the recent increase in atmospheric concentrations of five CFCs is quite surprising.

The Montreal protocol has succeeded in eliminating the biggest sources of CFCs. Joseph Sohm/Shutterstock

Our findings, while worrying, should be considered an early warning. The impact of all five CFCs on the recovery of the ozone layer is still small. Nevertheless, we do not fully understand where they are coming from, so this could change in the future, and we should not ignore the cumulative effect of these emissions on human health and the environment.

The global picture

Our team has been analysing air samples from all over the world, focusing on so-called “background” sites that are far away from the sources of these CFCs, or in fact any industrial emissions. An example is the Cape Grim observatory on the remote west coast of Tasmania. This is the basis for our assessment of the threat these chemicals pose, as it reveals global trends in their atmospheric concentration.

Our main findings for the period 2010-2020 were twofold. First, concentrations of CFC-13 and CFC-113a continued their previously observed – and puzzling – increase. Rising concentrations of CFC-113a even accelerated around 2016. Second, concentrations of CFC-114a and CFC-115 were stable since the 2000s, while those of CFC-112a had even started to decrease. However, all of them began increasing around 2013-2014.

Global emissions of the five CFCs weighted by their impact on ozone depletion (a) and the climate (b). Western et al. (2023)/Nature Geoscience

These observations, combined with additional knowledge about atmospheric circulation and how CFCs are removed from the atmosphere through chemical reactions, allowed us to estimate the global emissions of these five gases. Their damage to the ozone layer can be expressed through their ozone depletion potential, which states how much ozone would be destroyed compared to the same quantity of CFC-11, which is different for each CFC.

The result is a relief. Emissions between 2010 and 2020 only resulted in a very small loss of around 0.002% of global stratospheric ozone.

There is no time to relax, though, for two reasons. All five CFCs are also potent greenhouse gases and, once emitted, will remain in the atmosphere for decades to centuries. Their warming effect in 2020 was already approximately that of Switzerland’s total CO₂ emissions. And if those emissions continue on their upwards trajectory, their contribution to climate change will expand too. The persistence of these gases in the atmosphere must be taken seriously: all emissions are a legacy for future generations to contend with.

Tracking down the sources

The first step towards avoiding future emissions is to find out where the current ones are coming from. There were already some hints in previous studies, which we gathered and combined with our own information, such as on the exact timing of when emissions started accelerating.

We found that three of the five CFCs (CFC-113a, CFC-114a and CFC-115) can be produced during the manufacture of other chemicals, which is allowed under the Montreal protocol, most notably hydrofluorocarbons or HFCs. HFCs have replaced CFCs for many applications as an ozone-friendly alternative. However, like CFCs, they are greenhouse gases and their production is now being reduced in many countries under the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which could reduce climate-related warming by 0.5°C.

It’s likely that the CFCs are leaking out during the production process, where they are either used as a feedstock (a chemical ingredient to make another chemical) or as a result of incomplete conversion of the feedstock to the target chemical. The production of HFCs really took off in developing countries after CFCs were banned in 2010, which is around the same time as the increase in emissions of these five CFCs.

The production of HFCs is predicted to further increase over the next few years, which could result in increasing emissions of these CFCs. CFC-113a is used to make at least one hydrofluoroolefin or HFO, which are alternatives to HFCs that don’t heat the climate and may be used long into the future. Despite HFCs and HFOs being more benign alternatives to CFCs, there may still be some cost to ozone during their production if CFCs continue to leak into the atmosphere.

We were unable to find a plausible source for the other two CFCs, CFC-13 and CFC-112a. The fact that their emissions are increasing and we don’t know why is a concern in itself.

Time to revisit Montreal?

The Montreal protocol has been a huge success in mitigating emissions of ozone-depleting substances. Total CFC emissions are now only around 5% of their peak in the late 1980s. Yet an increase in the atmospheric abundance of some CFCs is still at odds with the treaty’s goals – and their elimination, by clogging leaks in industrial processes, could present an easy win to reduce these country-sized emissions of ozone-depleting and climate-warming gases.

It will take careful consideration by countries signed up to the protocol to find the necessary controls for quashing these trend-bucking emissions. In the meantime, we will continue to use our eyes in the sky to monitor the progress of a whole host of Earth-damaging gases.

---

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 10,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

---

Luke Western, Research Associate in Atmospheric Science, University of Bristol and Johannes Laube, Honorary Lecturer, Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of East Anglia

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Sustainability in Schools: 7 ideas for engaging students, communities in green initiatives

As the center of many communities, schools can play an important role in promoting sustainable behaviors. Teaching earth-friendly behaviors is one aspect, but schools can also take steps to facilitate sustainable practices within the school system and the community.

Beyond protecting the climate and environment, sustainable practices offer multiple benefits, including improving student health and enhancing the community. These green changes can make a meaningful and lasting impact.

Start a Recycling Club
For communities without a city-wide recycling program, a student-run operation can be highly successful. Engaging students in the planning and oversight of a social service project equips them with leadership experience while showing them firsthand the impact a small group can make.

Look at Propane Buses
Diesel school buses are not only expensive to operate, but they pose a risk to children’s health and the environment. According to the Propane Education & Research Council, with propane school buses, the classic cloud of black smoke emitted from the tailpipe is nonexistent. Propane school buses also provide a quieter ride than diesel buses, which means it’s a safer ride. What’s more, propane reduces harmful emissions that cause asthma, bronchitis and other respiratory illnesses by up to 94% compared to diesel.

There are two practical energy choices for clean student transportation: propane and electric. However, a propane bus costs one-third the price of an electric bus, allowing school districts to replace their aging diesel fleets three times faster than with electric. In addition, propane has a range of 400 miles, meaning even sizable vehicles, like buses, can go the distance to provide a reliable ride.

Clean with Natural Products
Especially in the wake of a global pandemic, cleaning standards in most schools are exceptionally high. However, many of the heavy-duty disinfectants and other cleaning agents used in schools and other public areas can be filled with chemicals that negatively affect air quality and further harm the environment when they wash into surrounding areas, including streams and rivers.

Plant a School Garden
Locally sourced produce offers numerous benefits, from providing an affordable food source for families in the area to minimizing costs associated with food production, including transportation and packaging. Beyond the social and environmental perks, gardening is a valuable life skill that can also be easily woven into academic lessons such as science, math, social studies and even art.

Take Advantage of Natural Light
In many cases, classrooms that are well-illuminated by natural light filtering through windows don’t need to run overhead lights throughout the day. Leveraging the warmth of the sun’s rays can also be helpful in providing natural heat during colder months.

Replace Light Bulbs
In areas where the school does rely on energy-based lighting, environmentally friendly bulbs make a lot of sense. Not only do eco-friendly bulbs align with a school’s commitment to sustainability, but they’re also generally more cost-efficient to operate, which means the district can save money on energy expenses.

Celebrate Environmental Holidays
Engaging students and capturing their interest can also mean tapping into the delight that comes with classroom parties and special events that offer a break from the regular school routine. Hosting assemblies or organizing special events in honor of environmental holidays can pique students’ interest and inspire them to take a greater interest in adopting sustainable habits.

A Program Geared for Sustainability

In an effort to provide school districts with more environmentally friendly transportation, the Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean School Bus Program is providing $5 billion over five years (2022-2026) to replace existing school buses with zero-emission and low-emission models.

The program prioritizes high-need, low-income, rural and tribal school districts. As an affordable, available energy source that provides fleets with a range of up to 400 miles on a single refuel, propane autogas is a viable option for each of these prioritized demographics.

In 2022, the EPA solicited rebate applications for $1 billion for zero-emission and low-emission school bus rebates as the first funding opportunity. The $1 billion paid for 2,350 electric school buses. The funding also awarded 109 low-emissions propane buses.

However, the same amount of money distributed for electric buses could have helped fund as many as 29,000 propane buses, assuming each bus received the $30,000 incentive from the program.

The 2,350 diesel buses the grant replaced with electric will reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by 665 metric tons per year and carbon dioxide emissions by 36,870 metric tons. If the funds went toward the 29,000 propane buses to replace diesel, it would have reduced nearly 10 times the amount of nitrogen oxide emissions and three times the amount of carbon dioxide emissions.

This year, parents can start the conversation with their school transportation officials about clean propane buses so they’ll be ready to apply when the time comes. Learn more about how parents can start the conversation at BetterOurBuses.com.

 

SOURCE:
Propane Education & Research Council

Carmakers are mistaken if they think chip shortages are over – they need to reinvent themselves while there’s time

The chips are down. Ju Jae-Young

Howard Yu, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)

Finally, carmakers got a break. Those in the UK boosted their output by over 13% in February as supply-chain pressures subsided, especially the persistent global shortage in microchips, also known as semiconductors. This “signals an industry on the road to recovery”, declared UK motoring trade association the SMMT. Well, up to a point.

Early in the pandemic, carmakers slashed sales forecasts as demand for cars evaporated, falling 47% in US and 80% in Europe in the first couple of months of lockdowns. Carmakers couldn’t see how sales could rebound quickly, which was a reasonable assumption at the time. In an industry where everyone has their own version of lean or just-in-time manufacturing, where unsold inventories are seen as tantamount to incompetence, they quickly scaled back orders from their supply chain.

Car parts suppliers such as Bosch and Continental reacted by scaling back their production – and naturally, their own suppliers, such as NXP and Infineon, also reduced their forecasts. These second-order effects went deep into the supply chain, eventually converging on the great and mighty semiconductor manufacturer in Taiwan, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company).

A modern car can easily contain more than 3,000 microchips. These control brakes, doors, airbags and windscreen wipers; they even support advanced functions like driver assistance and navigation control. Chipsets are like golden screws.

Yet obviously, many other industries depend on chips too. At the same time as carmakers were reducing their orders, manufacturers of gadgets such as games consoles, TVs and home appliances were seeing orders surging as consumers were forced to stay at home. They increased their chip requirements, and TSMC was more than happy to oblige.

It then became apparent to carmakers later in 2020 that they had overreacted. But by the time they woke up to this and ramped up orders, it was too late. TSMC was running all of its factories at maximum capacity to meet the surge in gadget demand, and there were no more chips available for carmakers.

As a result of this global semiconductor scarcity, worldwide vehicle production was approximately 11 million units, or about 12%, lower in 2021 than it would otherwise have been.

What carmakers got wrong

No one could have predicted the outbreak of COVID. Nor could anyone have foreseen the ramifications on the supply chain as the virus receded. Still, every executive in the car industry knows the importance of computing power in a modern car. A car is a supercomputer on wheels, they’ll say. And yet they didn’t treat chipsets as a critical area. In other words, they were happy to let their suppliers worry about chip requirements and not have any direct involvement with chipmakers.

Why? Because chips don’t involve mechanical engineering. From the boardroom to the shop floor, carmakers generally focus on final assembly. Chipset design and fabrication is one of many things that gets outsourced.

So during the pandemic, most carmakers had little choice but to perfect the art of triaging their chips: for example, General Motors hoarded them for expensive models, temporarily shutting down factories that produce lower-priced sedans.

The flagship BMW X3: now with reduced capabilities. Rising Star

Others instead removed features from vehicles that rely on microprocessors. BMW did away with parking assistance and even touchscreen capabilities in various models. It also withdrew semi-autonomous driving functionality from the X3, its top-selling model. Mercedes-Benz eliminated features such as high-end audio and wireless phone-charging from a number of vehicles.

The future threat

Car production is now increasing as the high pandemic demand for chips for household gadgets has fallen away. Still, it would be unwise to conclude that things are back to normal. Demand for chips is likely to look so different in future as we see the rollout of technologies like AI, the internet of things, and 5G/6G.

Major chipmakers are boosting capacity to meet this extra demand, with big new US facilities in the offing, for example. Yet it will take time for this to come on stream, and it’s still difficult to predict whether it will meet demand.

New product categories can appear unexpectedly, in a similar way to how bitcoin mining suddenly led to unforeseen chip demand. As Professor Rakesh Kumar in the Electrical and Computer Engineering department at the University of Illinois observes: “The exact nature, speed and magnitude of the increase in demand is still unknown.”

As we saw during the pandemic, chip factories also typically run close to maximum capacity, leaving production extremely susceptible to disruptions. Natural disasters like earthquakes and floods can cause problems, as can accidents such as fires and power outages. In March 2021, for instance, a fire at a Renesas Electronics chip factory in Japan caused a significant disruption to supplies over and above the pandemic-related problems. Geopolitical or military tensions, including those between the US and China, could also affect production in future.
The implication is clear: carmakers must cultivate in-house expertise in this area. Rather than relying on suppliers or their sub-suppliers for semiconductors, they need to directly engage with chipmakers and do the relevant designs in-house. For example, Ford announced a collaboration with US chipmaker GlobalFoundries in 2021 to create chips for its vehicles while exploring the prospect of expanding domestic chip production.

Ford is trying to get ahead of the curve. OVKNHR

This approach is already common practice among newer, more self-sufficient carmakers such as Tesla and China’s BYD and NIO, who all have extensive operations dedicated to designing or even producing their own chipsets.

These changes will not be easy. Yet the cost of clinging to the status quo will far outweigh the difficulties in the transition. For any company dependent on semiconductors, their resilience and future success hinge on getting this right. The correct response to the end of the pandemic is not to say “back to normal” but “never again”.

Howard Yu, Professor of Management and Innovation, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

‘Swarm’ is a dark, satirical look at how the absence of meaningful relationships can spawn a serial killer

Dre finds comfort in the fantasy that she’ll befriend her favorite pop star. Amazon Studios

Jenae Harris, Kennesaw State University

Editor’s note: This article contains plot spoilers for “Swarm.”

“Swarm,” the new streaming series created by Donald Glover and Janine Nabers, centers on a deranged superfan named Dre who becomes a serial killer.

Dre longs to meet a global pop star named Ni’Jah, who’s based on Beyoncé, and Dre’s obsession with the singer sparks a multistate murder spree that begins after the death of her only friend, Marissa.

As a criminologist, I look to understand what causes people to commit crimes, and I see more driving Dre than her extreme fixation on a celebrity. As the story unfolds, viewers learn about Dre’s childhood. To me, these early experiences explain a lot more about her crimes than her fandom does.

Social isolation and criminal behavior

In 1969, criminologist Travis Hirschi came up with what he called Social Bond Theory to explain delinquency in adolescents.

His theory, also known as Social Control Theory, suggests that criminal behavior is much more likely to happen when a person fails to develop normal societal bonds, which Hirschi divides into four categories: attachment to parents, peers and school; occupational and educational commitment; academic involvement; and belief in social rules and convention.

From the start of the series, it becomes clear that Dre has few friends outside of her foster sister, Marissa. After Marissa dies by suicide, Dre is truly alone in the world. She resorts to exotic dancing and living out of a cheap motel.

Then, in the series’ pivotal sixth episode, viewers learn that Dre is a product of the foster care system and was severely bullied in school.

Dre was taken in by Marissa’s parents as a foster child. However, Marissa’s parents struggled when Dre began exhibiting violent outbursts. So they returned her to state custody. It becomes clear that Dre has lived in at least three homes as a child, and she was already exhibiting symptoms of failure to develop normal bonds.

A 2008 study examining the delinquency in adolescents who grew up in foster care suggests that children who jump from home to home are more likely to engage in criminal behavior than adolescents with stable homes and permanent placements. Strong attachments play a large role as a foundation for receiving and giving care and contribute to healthy psychological development.

Fleeting relationships

Given this troubled upbringing and the death of Marissa, Dre’s fixation on Ni’Jah represents the last existing person who hasn’t abandoned her. Holding on to the fantasy that she would one day meet Ni’Jah and befriend her gives Dre something to believe in and connect to.

Throughout the series, Dre encounters a number of people who seem to offer potential for the formation of healthy relationships. Each relationship is elusive, however, as Dre fails to overcome her fixation on Ni’Jah. A fellow stripper named Hailey seems to want to bond with Dre, but the feeling is not reciprocated. Dre also meets a caring man with loose connections to Ni’Jah. That connection is short-lived as well. Dre even inadvertently joins an all-female cult but ends up murdering the cult leader, who tries to keep Dre from seeing Ni’Jah perform at a festival.

Why did these budding relationships all fall apart?

Because the damage, according to Hirschi’s theory, had already been done. The ability to form healthy bonds is meant to be cultivated in adolescence. For Dre, that ship had already sailed.

People with unstable childhoods like Dre’s often end up suffering from an attachment disorder, which refers to the inability to form meaningful relationships as an adult, often due to the failure to establish proper bonds as a child.

On Beyhive and Barbz

The underlying narrative in “Swarm” is exaggerated, but not far-fetched.

Stories of fans-cum-stalkers are relatively commonplace. Justin Beiber can lay claim to one of the creepier stalkers. That man, who is now serving a life sentence in prison on unrelated charges, has a tattoo on his leg devoted to the singer and masterminded an elaborate plan to kill Bieber after the singer failed to respond to his fan mail.

Fans of singer Justin Bieber at a 2022 concert in Rio de Janeiro. Mauro Pimentel/AFP via Getty Images

Super fans have long been a prominent feature of popular culture, but social media has facilitated the emergence of full-fledged communities dedicated to celebrating, tracking – and protecting – stars. Beyonce has her Beyhive. The Swifties belong to Taylor Swift. Rihanna’s Navy comes to her defense, while Nicki Minaj has the Barbz in her corner.

Of course, the overwhelming majority of these fans are passionate but harmless. However, for those who lack strong social connections, superfandom can evolve into blind, unquestioning devotion to the celebrity. That sense of belonging can transform into a menacing adoration.

Towards the end of the series, Dre is arrested in her last desperate attempt to meet Ni'Jah. However, an idyllic ending ensues, even though what play out appears to be Dre’s fantasy.

In the last scene, Ni’Jah – whose face has been replaced with Marissa’s – saves Dre from security and the two leave the concert together.

Though Dre doesn’t say much, she radiates, for the first time in the series, a sense of calm, comfort and connection.

Jenae Harris, Lecturer in Criminal Justice, Kennesaw State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.