Monday, June 26, 2023

Almost no one uses Bitcoin as currency, new data proves. It’s actually more like gambling

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John Hawkins, University of Canberra

Bitcoin boosters like to claim Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, are becoming mainstream. There’s a good reason to want people to believe this.

The only way the average punter will profit from crypto is to sell it for more than they bought it. So it’s important to talk up the prospects to build a “fear of missing out”.

There are loose claims that a large proportion of the population – generally in the range of 10% to 20% – now hold crypto. Sometimes these numbers are based on counting crypto wallets, or on surveying wealthy people.

But the hard data on Bitcoin use shows it is rarely bought for the purpose it ostensibly exists: to buy things.

Little use for payments

The whole point of Bitcoin, as its creator “Satoshi Nakamoto” stated in the opening sentence of the 2008 white paper outlining the concept, was that:

A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.

The latest data demolishing this idea comes from Australia’s central bank.

Every three years the Reserve Bank of Australia surveys a representative sample of 1,000 adults about how they pay for things. As the following graph shows, cryptocurrency is making almost no impression as a payments instrument, being used by no more than 2% of adults.


Payment methods being used by Australians

Alternative payment methods, share of all respondents, 2022
Reserve Bank calculations of Australians' awareness vs use of different payment methods, based on Ipsos data.

By contrast more recent innovations, such as “buy now, pay later” services and PayID, are being used by around a third of consumers.

These findings confirm 2022 data from the US Federal Reserve, showing just 2% of the adult US population made a payment using a cryptocurrrency, and Sweden’s Riksbank, showing less than 1% of Swedes made payments using crypto.

The problem of price volatility

One reason for this, and why prices for goods and services are virtually never expressed in crypto, is that most fluctuate wildly in value. A shop or cafe with price labels or a blackboard list of their prices set in Bitcoin could be having to change them every hour.

The following graph from the Bank of International Settlements shows changes in the exchange rate of ten major cryptocurrencies against the US dollar, compared with the Euro and Japan’s Yen, over the past five years. Such volatility negates cryptocurrency’s value as a currency.


Cryptocurrency’s volatile ways

90-day rolling standard deviation of daily returns for major cryptocurrencies compared with the Euro and Yen. The Crypto Multiplier, BIS Working Papers, No. 1104, CC BY

There have been attempts to solve this problem with so-called “stablecoins”. These promise to maintain steady value (usually against the US dollar).

But the spectacular collapse of one of these ventures, Terra, once one of the largest cryptocurrencies, showed the vulnerability of their mechanisms. Even a company with the enormous resources of Facebook owner Meta has given up on its stablecoin venture, Libra/Diem.

This helps explain the failed experiments with making Bitcoin legal tender in the two countries that have tried it: El Salvador and the Central African Republic. The Central African Republic has already revoked Bitcoin’s status. In El Salvador only a fifth of firms accept Bitcoin, despite the law saying they must, and only 5% of sales are paid in it.

Storing value, hedging against inflation

If Bitcoin’s isn’t used for payments, what use does it have?

The major attraction – one endorsed by mainstream financial publications – is as a store of value, particularly in times of inflation, because Bitcoin has a hard cap on the number of coins that will ever be “mined”.

As Forbes writers argued a few weeks ago:

In terms of quantity, there are only 21 million Bitcoins released as specified by the ASCII computer file. Therefore, because of an increase in demand, the value will rise which might keep up with the market and prevent inflation in the long run.

The only problem with this argument is recent history. Over the course of 2022 the purchasing power of major currencies (US, the euro and the pound) dropped by about 7-10%. The purchasing power of a Bitcoin dropped by about 65%.

Speculation or gambling?

Bitcoin’s price has always been volatile, and always will be. If its price were to stabilise somehow, those holding it as a speculative punt would soon sell it, which would drive down the price.

But most people buying Bitcoin essentially as a speculative token, hoping its price will go up, are likely to be disappointed. A BIS study has found the majority of Bitcoin buyers globally between August 2015 and December 2022 have made losses.

The “market value” of all cryptocurrencies peaked at US$3 trillion in November 2021. It is now about US$1 trillion.

Bitcoins’s highest price in 2021 was about US$60,000; in 2022 US$40,000 and so far in 2023 only US$30,000. Google searches show that public interest in Bitcoin also peaked in 2021. In the US, the proportion of adults with internet access holding cryptocurrencies fell from 11% in 2021 to 8% in 2022.

UK government research published in 2022 found that 52% of British crypto holders owned it as a “fun investment”, which sounds like a euphemism for gambling. Another 8% explicitly said it was for gambling.

The UK parliament’s Treasury Committee, a group of MPs who examine economics and financial issues, has strongly recommended regulating cryptocurrency as form of gambling rather than as a financial product. They argue that continuing to treat “unbacked crypto assets as a financial service will create a ‘halo’ effect that leads consumers to believe that this activity is safer than it is, or protected when it is not”.

Whatever the merits of this proposal, the UK committtee’s underlying point is solid. Buying crypto does have more in common with gambling than investing. Proceed at your own risk, and and don’t “invest” what you can’t afford to lose.

John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. 

More than 1.5 million Americans lost Medicaid coverage in the spring of 2023 due to the end of pandemic policies – and paperwork problems

Medicaid helps millions of low-income Americans get health care. skynesher/E+ via Getty Images
Maithreyi Gopalan, Penn State
CC BY-ND

At least 1.5 million Americans lost Medicaid coverage in April, May and the first three weeks of June 2023, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit that tracks health data.

Because only 25 states had publicly reported this data as of June 22, the actual number of people who lost coverage through Medicaid, the government’s main health insurance program for low-income people and people with certain disabilities, is surely much higher.

This swift decline in Medicaid enrollment follows a huge increase that started in early 2020 and was brought about by temporary policy changes in effect for the first three years of the COVID-19 pandemic. During that time, the federal government didn’t let states, which administer Medicaid, drop anyone from the program – even if their income grew too high to qualify.

As of January 2023, the most recent month for which full data is available, a total of 93 million Americans were insured through either Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program, known as CHIP, a related program. That marked a 30.7% increase from February 2020.

The federal government has estimated that 15 million people will lose their coverage, including 5.3 million children, by mid-2024 due to the end of the continuous enrollment policy.

Public health emergency over

The sharp spike in Medicaid enrollment stopped abruptly because the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic public health emergency status has expired.

States now must phase out their continuous enrollment policies, but they are doing it on different schedules. Some began in April 2023; others started to send out termination letters in May or June. There are also states that will not begin this process until later in the year or are taking steps to minimize the number of people losing their coverage.

For about 3 in 4 of the people who lost their Medicaid coverage, it was for procedural reasons, such as not filing required paperwork. The remaining 1 in 4 probably became ineligible due to an increase in their income.

Gains from Medicaid

There is mounting evidence that Medicaid has many benefits for society – especially children.

For example, when low-income families remain in the program for long periods of time, they tend to have lower child mortality rates. Medicaid coverage is also associated with kids faring better in school.

Researchers have also determined that the federal government and state governments can get boosts in tax revenue when families obtain this health insurance coverage through Medicaid and CHIP that exceed government spending on these programs. That’s because having better access to health care in the long term is associated with being healthier, staying in school longer and eventually earning a higher income.

The toll that the steep decline in health insurance coverage now underway will take on Americans remains to be seen.

Maithreyi Gopalan, Assistant Professor of Education and Public Policy, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. 

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The folly of making art with text-to-image generative AI

Obtaining a desired image can be a long exercise in trial and error. OpenAI
Ahmed Elgammal, Rutgers University

Making art using artificial intelligence isn’t new. It’s as old as AI itself.

What’s new is that a wave of tools now let most people generate images by entering a text prompt. All you need to do is write “a landscape in the style of van Gogh” into a text box, and the AI can create a beautiful image as instructed.

The power of this technology lies in its capacity to use human language to control art generation. But do these systems accurately translate an artist’s vision? Can bringing language into art-making truly lead to artistic breakthroughs?

Engineering outputs

I’ve worked with generative AI as an artist and computer scientist for years, and I would argue that this new type of tool constrains the creative process.

When you write a text prompt to generate an image with AI, there are infinite possibilities. If you’re a casual user, you might be happy with what AI generates for you. And startups and investors have poured billions into this technology, seeing it as an easy way to generate graphics for articles, video game characters and advertisements.

Grid of many images of cartoon women in various costumes.
Generative AI is seen as a promising tool for coming up with video game characters. Benlisquare/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

In contrast, an artist might need to write an essaylike prompt to generate a high-quality image that reflects their vision – with the right composition, the right lighting and the correct shading. That long prompt is not necessarily descriptive of the image but typically uses lots of keywords to invoke the system of what’s in the artist’s mind. There’s a relatively new term for this: prompt engineering.

Basically, the role of an artist using these tools is reduced to reverse-engineering the system to find the right keywords to compel the system to generate the desired output. It takes a lot of effort, and much trial and error, to find the right words.

AI isn’t as intelligent as it seems

To learn how to better control the outputs, it’s important to recognize that most of these systems are trained on images and captions from the internet.

Think about what a typical image caption tells about an image. Captions are typically written to complement the visual experience in web browsing.

For example, the caption might describe the name of the photographer and the copyright holder. On some websites, like Flickr, a caption typically describes the type of camera and the lens used. On other sites, the caption describes the graphic engine and hardware used to render an image.

So to write a useful text prompt, users need to insert many nondescriptive keywords for the AI system to create a corresponding image.

Today’s AI systems are not as intelligent as they seem; they are essentially smart retrieval systems that have a huge memory and work by association.

Artists frustrated by a lack of control

Is this really the sort of tool that can help artists create great work?

At Playform AI, a generative AI art platform that I founded, we conducted a survey to better understand artists’ experiences with generative AI. We collected responses from over 500 digital artists, traditional painters, photographers, illustrators and graphic designers who had used platforms such as DALL-E, Stable Diffusion and Midjourney, among others.

Only 46% of the respondents found such tools to be “very useful,” while 32% found them somewhat useful but couldn’t integrate them to their workflow. The rest of the users – 22% – didn’t find them useful at all.

The main limitation artists and designers highlighted was a lack of control. On a scale 0 to 10, with 10 being most control, respondents described their ability to control the outcome to be between 4 and 5. Half the respondents found the outputs interesting, but not of a high enough quality to be used in their practice.

When it came to beliefs about whether generative AI would influence their practice, 90% of the artists surveyed thought that it would; 46% believed that the effect would be a positive one, with 7% predicting that it would have a negative effect. And 37% thought their practice would be affected but weren’t sure in what way.

The best visual art transcends language

Are these limitations fundamental, or will they just go away as the technology improves?

Of course, newer versions of generative AI will give users more control over outputs, along with higher resolutions and better image quality.

But to me, the main limitation, as far as art is concerned, is foundational: it’s the process of using language as the main driver in generating the image.

Visual artists, by definition, are visual thinkers. When they imagine their work, they usually draw from visual references, not words – a memory, a collection of photographs or other art they’ve encountered.

When language is in the driver’s seat of image generation, I see an extra barrier between the artist and the digital canvas. Pixels will be rendered only through the lens of language. Artists lose the freedom of manipulating pixels outside the boundaries of semantics.

Grid of different cartoon images of an animal with wings.
The same input can lead to a range of random outputs. OpenAI/Wikimedia Commons

There’s another fundamental limitation in text-to-image technology.

If two artists enter the exact same prompt, it’s very unlikely that the system will generate the same image. That’s not due to anything the artist did; the different outcomes are simply due the AI’s starting from different random initial images.

In other words, the artist’s output is boiled down to chance.

Nearly two-thirds of the artists we surveyed had concerns that their AI generations might be similar to other artists’ works and that the technology does not reflect their identity – or even replaces it altogether.

The issue of artist identity is crucial when it comes to making and recognizing art. In the 19th century, when photography started to become popular, there was a debate about whether photography was a form of art. It came down to a court case in France in 1861 to decide whether photography could be copyrighted as an art form. The decision hinged on whether an artist’s unique identity could be expressed through photographs.

Those same questions emerge when considering AI systems that are taught with the internet’s existing images.

Before the emergence of text-to-image prompting, creating art with AI was a more elaborate process: Artists usually trained their own AI models based on their own images. That allowed them to use their own work as visual references and retain more control over the outputs, which better reflected their unique style.

Text-to-image tools might be useful for certain creators and casual everyday users who want to create graphics for a work presentation or a social media post.

But when it comes to art, I can’t see how text-to-image software can adequately reflect the artist’s true intentions or capture the beauty and emotional resonance or works that grip viewers and makes them see the world anew.

Ahmed Elgammal, Professor of Computer Science and Director of the Art & AI Lab, Rutgers University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. 

Friday, June 23, 2023

Proving Fermat’s last theorem: 2 mathematicians explain how building bridges within the discipline helped solve a centuries-old mystery

Andrew Wiles, the mathematician who presented a proof of Fermat’s last theorem back in 1993, stands next to the famous result. AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast
Maxine Calle, University of Pennsylvania and David Bressoud, Macalester College

On June 23, 1993, the mathematician Andrew Wiles gave the last of three lectures detailing his solution to Fermat’s last theorem, a problem that had remained unsolved for three and a half centuries. Wiles’ announcement caused a sensation, both within the mathematical community and in the media.

Beyond providing a satisfying resolution to a long-standing problem, Wiles’ work marks an important moment in the establishment of a bridge between two important, but seemingly very different, areas of mathematics.

History demonstrates that many of the greatest breakthroughs in math involve making connections between seemingly disparate branches of the subject. These bridges allow mathematicians, like the two of us, to transport problems from one branch to another and gain access to new tools, techniques and insights.

What is Fermat’s last theorem?

Fermat’s last theorem is similar to the Pythagorean theorem, which states that the sides of any right triangle give a solution to the equation x2 + y2 = z2 .

An animated gif. The statement of the Pythagorean Theorem is in the upper left. A purple right triangle appears with sides labeled a,b,c. Small red and green squares appear along the sides of the triangle, illustrating the Pythagorean Theorem.
The Pythagorean theorem, named for the Ancient Greek philosopher Pythagorus, is a fundamental result in Euclidean geometry that relates the lengths of the sides of a right triangle. AmericanXplorer13 via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

Every differently sized triangle gives a different solution, and in fact there are infinitely many solutions where all three of x, y and z are whole numbers – the smallest example is x=3, y=4 and z=5.

Fermat’s last theorem is about what happens if the exponent changes to something greater than 2. Are there whole-number solutions to x3 + y3 = z3 ? What if the exponent is 10, or 50, or 30 million? Or, most generally, what about any positive number bigger than 2?

A painted portrait of a man with long dark hair, wearing a dark robe
The French mathematician Pierre de Fermat. Rolland Lefebvre via Wikimedia Commons

Around the year 1637, Pierre de Fermat claimed that the answer was no, there are no three positive whole numbers that are a solution to xn + yn = zn for any n bigger than 2. The French mathematician scribbled this claim into the margins of his copy of a math textbook from ancient Greece, declaring that he had a marvelous proof that the margin was “too narrow to contain.”

Fermat’s purported proof was never found, and his “last theorem” from the margins, published posthumously by his son, went on to plague mathematicians for centuries.

Searching for a solution

For the next 356 years, no one could find Fermat’s missing proof, but no one could prove him wrong either – not even Homer Simpson. The theorem quickly gained a reputation for being incredibly difficult or even impossible to prove, with thousands of incorrect proofs put forward. The theorem even earned a spot in the Guinness World Records as the “most difficult math problem.”

That is not to say that there was no progress. Fermat himself had proved it for n=3 and n=4. Many other mathematicians, including the trailblazer Sophie Germain, contributed proofs for individual values of n, inspired by Fermat’s methods.

But knowing Fermat’s last theorem is true for certain numbers isn’t enough for mathematicians – we need to know it’s true for infinitely many of them. Mathematicians wanted a proof that would work for all numbers bigger than 2 at once, but for centuries it seemed as though no such proof could be found.

However, toward the end of the 20th century, a growing body of work suggested Fermat’s last theorem should be true. At the heart of this work was something called the modularity conjecture, also known as the Taniyama-Shimura conjecture.

A bridge between two worlds

A blue line swoops down from the top-right, curves out a sideways-U, then swoops down to the lower-left
A graph of an elliptic curve. Googolplexian1221, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The modularity conjecture proposed a connection between two seemingly unrelated mathematical objects: elliptic curves and modular forms.

Elliptic curves are neither ellipses nor curves. They are doughnut-shaped spaces of solutions to cubic equations, like y2 = x3 – 3x + 1.

A modular form is a kind of function which takes in certain complex numbers – numbers with two parts: a real part and an imaginary part – and outputs another complex number. What makes these functions special is that they are highly symmetrical, meaning there are lots of conditions on what they can look like.

A circle containing curving black stripes against other colors, mostly yellow, green, and blue.
The symmetries of a modular form can be seen in how it transforms a disc. Linas Vepstas, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

There is no reason to expect that those two concepts are related, but that is what the modularity conjecture implied.

Finally, a proof

The modularity conjecture doesn’t appear to say anything about equations like xn + yn = zn . But work by mathematicians in the 1980s showed a link between these new ideas and Fermat’s old theorem.

First, in 1985, Gerhard Frey realized that if Fermat was wrong and there could be a solution to xn + yn = zn for some n bigger than 2, that solution would produce a peculiar elliptic curve. Then Kenneth Ribet showed in 1986 that such a curve could not exist in a universe where the modularity conjecture was also true.

Their work implied that if mathematicians could prove the modularity conjecture, then Fermat’s last theorem had to be true. For many mathematicians, including Andrew Wiles, working on the modularity conjecture became a path to proving Fermat’s last theorem.

Wiles worked for seven years, mostly in secret, trying to prove this difficult conjecture. By 1993, he was close to having a proof of a special case of the modularity conjecture – which was all he needed to prove Fermat’s last theorem.

He presented his work in a series of lectures at the Isaac Newton Institute in June 1993. Though subsequent peer review found a gap in Wiles’ proof, Wiles and his former student Richard Taylor worked for another year to fill in that gap and cement Fermat’s last theorem as a mathematical truth.

Lasting consequences

The impacts of Fermat’s last theorem and its solution continue to reverberate through the world of mathematics. In 2001, a group of researchers, including Taylor, gave a full proof of the modularity conjecture in a series of papers that were inspired by Wiles’ work. This completed bridge between elliptic curves and modular forms has been – and will continue to be – foundational to understanding mathematics, even beyond Fermat’s last theorem.

Wiles’ work is cited as beginning “a new era in number theory” and is central to important pieces of modern math, including a widely used encryption technique and a huge research effort known as the Langlands Program that aims to build a bridge between two fundamental areas of mathematics: algebraic number theory and harmonic analysis.

Although Wiles worked mostly in isolation, he ultimately needed help from his peers to identify and fill in the gap in his original proof. Increasingly, mathematics today is a collaborative endeavor, as witnessed by what it took to finish proving the modularity conjecture. The problems are large and complex and often require a variety of expertise.

Andrew Wiles on winning the Abel Prize, a high honor in mathematics, in 2016 for his work on Fermat’s last theorem.

So, finally, did Fermat really have a proof of his last theorem, as he claimed? Knowing what mathematicians know now, many of us today don’t believe he did. Although Fermat was brilliant, he was sometimes wrong. Mathematicians can accept that he believed he had a proof, but it’s unlikely that his proof would stand up to modern scrutiny.

Maxine Calle, Ph.D. Candidate in Mathematics, University of Pennsylvania and David Bressoud, Professor Emeritus of Mathematics, Macalester College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

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Hope for haploinsufficiency diseases

Genetic conditions like Dravet syndrome, which causes severe childhood epilepsy, are hard to tackle with traditional gene therapy. New approaches in the works include using antisense therapy to boost mRNA splicing.

The seizures started when Samantha Gundel was just four months old. By her first birthday, she was taking a cocktail of three different anticonvulsant medicines. A vicious cycle of recurrent pneumonia, spurred on by seizure-induced inhalation of regurgitated food, landed the young toddler in and out of the hospital near her Westchester County home in New York State.

Genetic testing soon confirmed her doctors’ suspicions: Samantha, now age 4, has Dravet syndrome, an incurable form of epilepsy. Her brain was misfiring because of a mutation that is unlike those responsible for most genetic diseases; it’s a type that has long eluded the possibility of correction. Available drugs could help alleviate symptoms, but there was nothing that could address the root cause of her disease.

That’s because the mutation at the heart of Dravet creates a phenomenon known as haploinsufficiency, in which a person falls ill if they have only a single working copy of a gene. That lone gene simply can’t produce enough protein to serve its molecular purpose. In the case of Dravet, that means that electrical signaling between nerve cells gets thrown out of whack, leading to the kinds of neuronal shock waves that trigger seizures.

Most genes are not like this. Though the human genome contains two copies of almost every gene, one inherited from each parent, the body can generally do fine with just one.

Not so for genes such as SCN1A, the main culprit behind Dravet. For SCN1A and hundreds of other known genes like it, there’s a delicate balance of molecular activity that is needed to ensure proper function. Too little activity is a problem — and oftentimes, so is too much.

This Goldilocks paradigm partially explains why conventional gene therapy strategies are ill-suited to the task of haploinsufficiency correction. With therapies of this kind — several of which are now available to treat “recessive” genetic diseases such as the blood disorder beta thalassemia and a form of inherited vision loss — the amount of protein made by an introduced gene just needs to cross a minimum threshold to undo the disease process.

In those contexts, it’s not a problem if the added gene is overactive — there’s a floor, but no ceiling, to therapeutic protein levels. That is simply not the case with many dosage-sensitive diseases like Dravet, especially for brain disorders in which too much protein can overexcite neuronal activity, says Gopi Shanker, who served as chief scientific officer of Tevard Biosciences in Cambridge, Massachusetts, until earlier this year. “That’s what makes it more challenging,” he says.

Adding to the challenge: The special types of modified viruses that are used to ferry therapeutic genes into human cells can handle only so much extra DNA — and the genes at the heart of Dravet and many related haploinsufficiency disorders are much too big to fit inside of these delivery vehicles.

Overlooked no more

Faced with these technical and molecular hurdles, the biotechnology industry long ignored haploinsufficiencies. For more than 30 years, companies jostled to get a piece of the drug development action in other areas of rare genetic disease — for cystic fibrosis, say, or for hemophilia — but conditions like Dravet got short shrift. “It’s one of the most neglected classes of disorder,” says Navneet Matharu, cofounder and chief scientific officer of Regel Therapeutics, based in Berkeley, California, and Boston.

Not anymore. Thanks to new therapeutic ideas and a better understanding of disease processes, Regel, Tevard and a group of other biotech startups are taking aim at Dravet, with experimental treatments and technologies that they say should serve as testing grounds for going after haploinsufficiency diseases more broadly.

Currently, there’s little to offer patients with these maladies other than drugs to aid with symptom control, says Kenneth Myers, a pediatric neurologist at Montreal Children’s Hospital who cowrote an article about emerging therapies for Dravet and similar genetic epilepsies in the 2022 issue of the Annual Review of Pharmacology and Toxicology. But thanks to new advances, he says, “there’s a huge reason for optimism.”

Samantha, for one, now seems to have her disease under control because of a drug called STK-001; it is the first ever to be evaluated clinically that addresses the root cause of Dravet.

Between February and April 2022, doctors thrice inserted a long needle into the young girl’s lower spine and injected the investigational therapy, which is designed to bump up levels of the sodium-shuttling protein whose deficiency is responsible for Dravet. It seemed to work. For a time, Samantha lived nearly seizure-free — presumably because the increased protein levels helped correct electrical imbalances in her brain.

Conventional gene therapy strategies are ill-suited to the task of haploinsufficiency correction.

She went from epileptic attacks every 7 to 10 days, on average, to nothing for months on end. Her verbal skills improved, as did her physical capabilities. Her gait improved and her tremors disappeared.

Eventually, as the therapy wore off, Samantha began to backslide, with seizures returning every couple of weeks or so. But she started receiving additional doses of STK-001 under a new trial protocol in October 2022, and since then has experienced only two epileptic episodes over the span of six months. “It’s really pretty amazing,” says her mother, Jenni Barnao.

“Is it a cure? No.… But this is absolutely our best shot,” Barnao says. “There’s definitely something with this drug that’s very good. Her brain is just working better.”

Give a boost

The STK-001 treatment relies on the fact that the normal activity of genes is somewhat inefficient and wasteful. When genes get decoded into mRNA, the resulting sequences require further cutting and splicing before they’re mature and ready to serve as guides for making protein. But often, this process is sloppy and doesn’t result in usable product.

Which is where STK-001 comes in.

A kind of “antisense” therapy, STK-001 consists of short, synthetic pieces of RNA that are tailor-made to stick to part of the SCN1A gene transcript and, as a result, make productive cutting and splicing more efficient. The synthetic pieces glom on to mRNA from the one working version of the gene that people with Dravet have and help to ensure that unwanted bits of the mRNA sequence are spliced out, just as a movie editor might cut scenes that detract from a film’s story. As a result, more functional ion channel protein gets made than would otherwise happen.

Protein levels don’t get completely back to normal. According to mouse studies, there’s a 50 percent to 60 percent boost, not a full doubling of the relevant protein in the brain. But that bump seems to be enough to make a real impact on patients’ lives.

Stoke Therapeutics, the company in Bedford, Massachusetts, that is behind STK-001, reported at the American Epilepsy Society’s 2022 Annual Meeting that 20 of the first 27 Dravet patients to receive multiple doses of the therapy in early trials experienced reductions in seizure frequency. The greatest benefits were observed among young children like Samantha whose brains have accumulated less damage from years of debilitating seizures and abnormal cell function. Larger confirmatory trials that could lead to marketing approval are scheduled to begin next year.

Stoke is hardly alone in its quest to fix Dravet and haploinsufficiency disorders more generally. Several other biotech startups are nearing clinical trials with their own technological approaches to enhancing what working gene activity remains. Encoded Therapeutics, for example, will soon begin enrolling participants for a trial of its experimental Dravet therapy, ETX-001; it uses an engineered virus to deliver a protein that ramps up SCN1A gene activity so that many more mRNA copies are made of the single, functional gene.

And if any of these companies succeed in reversing the course of Dravet, their technologies could then be adapted to take on any comparable disease, says Orrin Devinsky, a neurologist at NYU Langone Health who works with several of the firms and is involved in Samantha’s care. “An effective therapy would provide a potential platform to address other haploinsufficiencies,” he says.

New targets, new tactics

Stoke will soon put that idea to the test.

Buoyed by the early promise of its Dravet therapeutic, the company developed a second drug candidate, STK-002, that similarly targets splicing to turn nonproductive gene transcripts into constructive ones. But in this case, it’s designed to tackle an inherited vision disorder known as autosomal dominant optic atrophy, caused by haploinsufficiency of a gene called OPA1. In this disease, a single working copy of OPA1 is not enough to sustain proper nerve signaling from the eyes to the brain.

Clinical evaluation of STK-002 is expected to start next year. Meanwhile, in partnership with Acadia Pharmaceuticals of San Diego, Stoke is also exploring treatments for Rett syndrome and SYNGAP1-related intellectual disability, both severe brain disorders caused by insufficient protein levels.

“There’s definitely something with this drug that’s very good. Her brain is just working better.”

Jenni Barnao

Stoke’s splice-modulating approach flows naturally from the success of another antisense drug, Spinraza. Developed by Ionis Pharmaceuticals in collaboration with Biogen, Spinraza also works on splicing of mRNA transcripts to promote production of a missing protein. In 2016, it became the first therapy approved for treating a rare neuromuscular disorder called spinal muscular atrophy (SMA).

SMA is somewhat different, though. It isn’t a haploinsufficiency — it occurs when both gene copies are defective, not just one — but it’s an unusual disease from a genetics standpoint. Because of a quirk in the human genome, it turns out that people have a kind of backup gene that doesn’t normally function because its mRNA undergoes faulty splicing. With Spinraza acting as a guide to help the mRNA splice correctly, that backup gene can be made operational and do the job that the damaged gene copies can’t do.

Few diseases are like this. But Stoke’s scientific cofounders, molecular geneticist Adrian Krainer of Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York (who helped to develop Spinraza) and his former postdoctoral researcher Isabel Aznarez, realized that there was a whole world of other ailments — haploinsufficiencies — for which this type of splice modulation could be beneficial.

Spinraza was the prototype. Stoke’s portfolio is full of the next-generation editions. “We brought it to the next level,” says Aznarez, who now serves as head of discovery research at Stoke.

Striking a balance

There was a time when Dravet researchers were more focused on traditional gene replacement therapies. They aimed to insert a working version of the SCN1A gene into the genome of a virus and then introduce the engineered virus into brain cells. The problems proved manifold, though.

For starters, the virus vehicles generally used in gene therapy strategies — adeno-associated viruses (AAVs) — are too small to hold all 6,030 of the DNA letters that constitute the SCN1A gene sequence.

Researchers tried a few potential workarounds. At University College London, for example, gene therapist Rajvinder Karda and her colleagues split the SCN1A gene in half and delivered both parts into mice in different virus carriers. And at the University of Toronto, neuroscientist David Hampson and his group tried introducing a smaller gene that would fit in a single AAV vector and compensate for the SCN1A deficiency in an indirect way.

But none of those efforts advanced past mouse experiments. And while it is technically feasible to deliver the entire SCN1A gene into cells if you use other kinds of viral vectors, as researchers at the University of Navarra in Spain showed in mice, those viruses are generally considered unsafe for use in people.

To get protein levels just right, scientists say, it is best to follow the cell’s own lead.

What is more, even if gene replacement could be made to work, there are many reasons to think it would not be ideal for diseases like Dravet in which the underlying defect is mediated by an imbalance of protein levels. The amount of protein produced by those kinds of gene therapies can be unpredictable, and so are the types of cells that end up manufacturing the proteins.

To get protein levels just right, scientists say, it is best to follow the cell’s own lead, tapping into the ways that it naturally produces the protein of interest only in certain tissues of the body, and then providing a therapeutic nudge to aid the process along.

CAMP4 Therapeutics, for example, is using antisense therapies, like Stoke. But instead of targeting the splicing of gene transcripts, CAMP4’s drugs are directed at regulatory molecules that act like rheostats to control how much of those transcripts are made in the first place. By blocking or stabilizing different regulatory molecules, the company claims it can ramp up the activity of target genes in a precise and tunable way.

“It’s basically teaching the body to do it a little bit better,” says Josh Mandel-Brehm, president and CEO of CAMP4, which is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

In theory, the gene-editing technology known as CRISPR could obviate the need for all of these therapeutic approaches. Gene editing allows you to perfectly correct a mistake in a gene — so one could edit a faulty DNA sequence to correct it and render kids with Dravet or some other haploinsufficiency disease as good as new.

But the technology is nowhere near ready for prime time. (Some of the first CRISPR therapies to be tested in children have failed to demonstrate much benefit.) Plus, any gene-correction therapy would have to be tailored to the unique nature of a given patient’s mutations — and there are more than 1,200 Dravet-causing mutations in the SCN1A gene alone.

That’s why Jeff Coller, an RNA biologist at Johns Hopkins University and a scientific cofounder of Tevard, prefers therapeutic strategies that can address all manner of disease-causing alterations in a gene of interest, as most companies are doing now. “Having a mutation-agnostic technology is a way of going after the entire cohort of patients,” he says.

“We’re open to any approach that would help our daughters.”

Daniel Fischer

Tevard, whose mission is to “reverse” Dravet syndrome (the company’s name is Dravet spelled backward), is approaching this challenge in various ways. Some involve engineered versions of other RNAs that are key for protein production; known as “transfer” RNAs, they help to ferry amino acid building blocks to the growing protein strands. Others are intended to help bring beneficial regulatory molecules to sites of SCN1A gene activity.

But all of Tevard’s therapeutic candidates remain at least a year away from clinical testing, whereas STK-001 is in human trials today. So the company’s chief executive, Daniel Fischer — who, along with board chair and cofounder Warren Lammert, has a daughter affected by Dravet — is considering enrolling his child, now 13, in the Stoke trial rather than waiting for his own company’s efforts to bear fruit.

“We’re open to any approach that would help our daughters,” Fischer said over lunch last November at the company’s headquarters.

“And help people with Dravet generally,” added Lammert. “We’d love to see many of these things succeed.”

Editor’s note: This article was amended on April 14, 2023, to correct Gopi Shanker’s relationship with Tevard Biosciences. Shanker is Tevard’s former chief scientific officer; he is now chief scientific officer with Beam Therapeutics.

This article originally appeared in Knowable Magazine, an independent journalistic endeavor from Annual Reviews.

A brief history of colorful presidential relatives, from Alice Roosevelt to Hunter Biden

Hunter Biden embraces his father, President Joe Biden, and his stepmother, Jill, at Biden’s 2021 inauguration. Drew Angerer/Getty Images
Shannon Bow O'Brien, The University of Texas at Austin

Hunter Biden, the younger son of U.S. President Joe Biden, is expected to plead guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges as part of a recently announced deal with the Justice Department that will help him avoid the federal charges for possessing a gun while using illegal drugs.

Joe Biden has long defended his son amid his drug addiction and other personal issues, including a paternity scandal and ongoing court battle over child support.

The president responded to the news of Hunter’s charges, saying on June 20, 2023, that he is “very proud of my son”.

I am a scholar of the American presidency and have looked at how the children and other family members of presidents have been thrust into the nation’s spotlight, often unwittingly. Their shortcomings, vices and sometimes even physical appearance have been fodder for gossip columns, political opponents and comedians.

Hunter Biden is not the first child of a president to be charged with a crime. Jenna and Barbara Bush pleaded “no contest” in 2001 to misdemeanor charges of underage drinking and using a false ID. Amy Carter was arrested for protesting in 1985, and before his father was president, Donald Trump Jr. was arrested for public drunkenness in 2001.

But nearly all presidents have had incidents involving their kids and other family members that attracted public scrutiny. Some of the events fall into questionable prank category, like when Tad Lincoln, the son of Abraham Lincoln, sprayed dignitaries with fire hoses.

Other incidents are less innocuous and amusing.

A family photo shows a man and a woman seated, surrounded by six children ranging in age from toddler to teen.
A colorized portrait of former President Theodore Roosevelt’s family features his oldest daughter, Alice, in the center. Stock Montage/Getty Images

Youthful indiscretions

James Madison raised his troubled stepson, John Payne Todd, as his own. Todd regularly engaged in gambling, drinking and womanizing. Madison went deeply into debt trying to pay off Todd’s vices, including once bailing him out of debtor’s prison. In the mid-1800s, Todd’s debts eventually forced his widowed mother to sell the family estate, Montpelier.

Todd even had a lawyer visit his mother on her deathbed to rewrite her will, making himself her sole heir.

Alice Roosevelt, the oldest child of Theodore Roosevelt, also presented some complications for her father during his presidency in the early 1900s.

Alice had a strained relationship with her father and his second wife, Edith. When her parents suggested sending her to a boarding school, Alice responded: “If you send me, I will humiliate you. I will do something that will shame you. I tell you I will.”

In a time when women were expected to be demur, Alice smoked, drank, partied and even sometimes wore a pet snake as an accessory.

Theodore Roosevelt once said, “I can do one of two things: I can be president of the United States or I can control Alice Roosevelt. I cannot possibly do both.”

Alice was later banned from the Taft White House after burying a voodoo doll in the likeness of the new first lady, Helen Herron Taft, on the property.

Neil Bush, son of George H.W. Bush and brother to George W. Bush, also has a colorful history.

Neil was the director of a large savings and loans company that collapsed in 1988, after it made improper and illegal loans. This cost taxpayers more than US$1 billion at the time and resulted in an embarrassing payout to federal banking regulators.

People also criticized Neil because of his ties to Chinese investors and his limited knowledge about industries that employed him, leading to accusations of influence peddling.

Neil Bush, like Hunter Biden, was also the subject of paternity accusations during his divorce.

That’s my brother

Presidential brothers have been another particular sore point for some presidents.

Lyndon Johnson’s brother, Sam Houston Johnson, was often quite talkative after he had a few drinks. The president eventually had to use the Secret Service to follow his brother to ensure he didn’t disclose any embarrassing information to the press .

Billy Carter, former President Jimmy Carter’s brother, reveled in his notoriety. As the president’s brother, he toured the country to make money and hawk his own Billy Beer.

He urinated on a runway before the press corps while waiting for people.

When Carter was running for reelection in 1980, Billy took money from the Libyan government and became a foreign agent for the country – while also making inflammatory and antisemitic statements to justify his behavior.

Billy’s association with Libya ultimately led to a Senate investigation and complicated his brother’s failed reelection campaign.

The side profiles of two men are seen as they have their arms around each other - one is Bill Clinton and the other is a man wearing a white hat.
Former President Bill Clinton comforts his half-brother Roger in 1994, shortly after their mother’s death. POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Roger Clinton, the younger half-brother of former President Bill Clinton, also engaged in questionable activities. In the 1980s, before the Clinton presidency, Roger sold cocaine to an undercover officer.

Later, during the Clinton administration, Roger’s Secret Service codename was “Headache.”

Bill Clinton pardoned Roger for his drug offenses right before leaving office in January 2001.

Hunter Biden and Joe Biden, both wearing suits, stand next to each other, with their arms crossed.
Hunter Biden stands next to his father, President Joe Biden, at an event in 2016. Kris Connor/WireImage

Keeping it in the family

Presidents are like everyone else. They, too, have family members who do or say things that eventually become stories for the dinner table – or tales people want to push under the rug.

A federal judge still needs to approve Hunter Biden’s deal with the Justice Department that would allow him to avoid prison time for paying $1 million in taxes late and possessing a gun.

And he is still not free of other controversies. The Republican-controlled House continues to investigate his bank records, as well as lingering questions about money he received from foreign organizations.

Hunter himself has said that he is accountable for his actions, and I do not think it is fair to conflate the administration with the activities of an adult son.

He is not the first presidential relative who has caused turmoil, and he won’t be the last.

Shannon Bow O'Brien, Associate Professor of Instruction, The University of Texas at Austin

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

3 Healthy Habits to Protect Your Skin

(Family Features) As the first line of defense against the outside world, skin is the body’s largest organ and takes on an important role in maintaining overall health. While products like sunscreen and moisturizer can help skin thrive, healthy skin starts from within where food and beverage choices can play a key role.

One example is grapes: Emerging research suggests consuming grapes may help protect healthy skin even when exposed to UV light, which is known to be damaging. A study published in the journal “Antioxidants,” in which people consumed 2 1/4 cups of grapes every day for two weeks, showed increased resistance to sunburn and reduced markers of UV damage at the cellular level.

This study reinforced previous and similar findings published in the “Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology.” Grapes are also a hydrating food with 82% water content; hydration is essential to healthy skin.

To take care of your skin, consider these skin-friendly health tips.

Protect Skin While Outdoors
While perhaps an obvious step to some, one of the most direct ways you can protect skin is by applying sunscreen – most experts recommend 30 SPF or higher – before heading outdoors and reapplying every 1-2 hours. Additionally, consider wearing protective clothing, such as a hat large enough to shade your face and neck. If you plan to spend extended time in the sun, opt for a lightweight, long-sleeve shirt and pants for maximum skin coverage.

Fill Your Plate with Healthy, Hydrating Foods
Nutritious foods, including fruits and vegetables, can play an important role in achieving an overall balanced diet with adequate hydration. Enjoying the goodness of fresh or frozen Grapes from California can provide extra hydration and a boost of beneficial antioxidants and other polyphenols that help protect the health and function of the body’s cells, including those in the skin.

Drink water throughout the day, and for added flavor, infuse with fruits like frozen grapes. Simply rinse, pat dry, remove from the stems and freeze the grapes for 2 hours in a single layer on a sheet pan for flavorful ice cube replacements.

For an easy, refreshing way to add grapes to your menu and stay hydrated on warm days, try this Frosty Grape Hibiscus Slush for a subtly sweet, fruity tea in frozen form.

Manage Stress
Whether it’s caused by a lengthy to-do list or general anxieties, stress can negatively impact skin health while even exacerbating certain conditions. Managing stress can offer a reprieve in multiple ways, including encouraging healthier skin. Some simple ways to relieve stress include exercising, getting enough sleep, lightening or limiting your workload, scaling back on to-do lists and making time for things you enjoy.

Visit GrapesFromCalifornia.com for more information on grapes and health and delicious recipes.

Frosty Grape Hibiscus Slush
Prep time: 15 minutes, plus freezing overnight
Servings: 6 (1 cup each)

9          hibiscus tea bags
6          cups boiling water
3          cups Grapes from California puree (green, red, black or mixture)
4 1/2    tablespoons frozen lemonade concentrate, thawed
1 1/2    tablespoons lime juice (optional)

Steep tea bags in boiling water. Remove tea bags and stir in grape puree, lemonade concentrate and lime juice, if desired. 

Pour into ice cube trays and freeze overnight until firm. 

In blender, blend until slushy, stirring as needed.

Notes: If no ice cube trays, freeze mixture in large container about 1 1/2 inches deep. Let soften slightly then break into pieces with knife before blending and serving.

Nutritional information per serving: 80 calories; 1 g protein; 21 g carbohydrates; 0 g fat; 0 g saturated fat; 0 mg cholesterol; 0 mg sodium; 1 g fiber.

SOURCE:
California Table Grape Commission

Ocean heat is off the charts – here’s what that means for humans and ecosystems around the world

The Indian Ocean’s heat is having effects on land, too. NOAA Coral Reef Watch
Annalisa Bracco, Georgia Institute of Technology

Ocean temperatures have been off the charts since mid-March 2023, with the highest average levels in 40 years of satellite monitoring, and the impact is breaking through in disruptive ways around the world.

The sea of Japan is more than 7 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) warmer than average. The Indian monsoon, closely tied to conditions in the warm Indian Ocean, has been well below its expected strength.

Spain, France, England and the whole Scandinavian Peninsula are also seeing rainfall far below normal, likely connected to an extraordinary marine heat wave in the eastern North Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures there have been 1.8 to 5 F (1 to 3 C) above average from the coast of Africa all the way to Iceland.

So, what’s going on?

Chart shows 22 years of sea surface temperature, with 2023 well above that of previous years
Sea surface temperatures are running well above the average since satellite monitoring began. The thick black line is 2023. The orange line is 2022. The 1982-2011 average is the middle dashed line. ClimateReanalyzer.org/NOAA OISST v2.1

El Niño is partly to blame. This climate phenomenon, now developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is characterized by warm waters in the central and eastern Pacific, which generally weakens the trade winds in the tropics. This weakening of those winds can affect oceans and land around the world.

But there are other forces at work on ocean temperatures.

Underlying everything is global warming – the continuing rising trend of sea surface and land temperatures for the past several decades as human activities have increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.

The world just came off three straight years of La Niña – El Niño’s opposite, characterized by cooler waters rising in the equatorial Pacific. La Niña has a cooling effect globally that helps keep global sea surface temperatures in check but can also mask global warming. With that cooling effect turned off, the heat is increasingly evident.

Arctic sea ice was also unusually low in May and early June, and it may play a role. Losing ice cover can increase water temperatures, because dark open water absorbs solar radiation that white ice had reflected back into space.

These influences are playing out in various ways around the world.

The effects of extraordinary Atlantic heat

In early June 2023, I visited the NORCE climate center in Bergen, Norway, for two weeks to meet with other ocean scientists. The warm waters and mild winds across the eastern North Atlantic brought a long stretch of sunny, warm weather in a month when more than 70% of days normally would have been downpours.

The whole agricultural sector of Norway is now bracing for a drought as bad as the one in 2018, when yield was 40% below normal. Our train from Bergen to Oslo had a two-hour delay because the brakes of one car overheated and the 90 F (32 C) temperatures approaching the capital were too high to allow them to cool down.

Many scientists have speculated on the causes of the eastern North Atlantic’s unusually high temperatures, and several studies are underway.

Weakened winds caused the Azores high, a semi-permanent high pressure system over the Atlantic that affects Europe’s weather, to be especially weak and brought less dust from the Sahara over the ocean during the spring, which may have increased the amount of solar radiation reaching the water. A decrease in human-produced aerosol emissions in Europe and in the United States over the past few years – which has succeeded in improving air quality – may also have reduced the cooling effect such aerosols have.

A weakened monsoon in South Asia

In the Indian Ocean, El Niño tends to cause a warming of the water in April and May that can dampen the crucial Indian monsoon.

That may be happening – the monsoon was much weaker than normal from mid-May to mid-June 2023. That can be a problem for a large part of South Asia, where most of the agriculture is still rain-fed and depends heavily on the summer monsoon.

Three adults walk under umbrellas sheltering them from the sun. A woman without an umbrella shades her eyes with her hands on a hot day, and a boy wears a cap.
India saw sweltering temperatures in May and June 2023. Sanjeev Verma/Hindustan Times via Getty Images

The Indian Ocean also saw an intense, slow-moving cyclone in the Arabian Sea this year that deprived land of moisture and rainfall for weeks. Studies suggest storms can sit for longer over warmer waters, gaining strength and pulling moisture to their core, and that can deprive surrounding land masses of water, increasing the risk of droughts, wildfires and marine heat waves.

North American hurricane season up in the air

In the Atlantic, the weakening trade winds with El Niño tend to tamp down hurricane activity, but warm Atlantic temperatures can supercharge those storms. Whether the ocean heat, if it persists into fall, will override El Niño’s effects remains to be seen.

Risk of marine heat waves in South America

Marine heat waves can also have huge impacts on marine ecosystems, bleaching coral reefs and causing the death or movement of entire species. Coral-based ecosystems are nurseries for fish that provide food for 1 billion people around the world.

The reefs of the Galapagos Islands and those along the coastlines of Colombia, Panama and Ecuador are already at risk of severe bleaching and mortality from this year’s El Nino. Meanwhile, the Japan Sea and the eastern Mediterranean Sea are both losing their biodiversity to invasive species – giant jellyfish in Asia and lionfish in the Mediterranean – that can thrive in warmer waters.

These kinds of risks are increasing

Spring 2023 was exceptional, with several chaotic weather events accompanying the formation of El Niño and the exceptionally warmer temperatures in many parts of the world. At the same time, the warming of the oceans and atmosphere increase the chances for this kind of ocean warming.

To lower the risk, the world needs to reduce baseline warming by limiting excess greenhouse gas emissions, like fossil fuels, and move to a carbon-neutral planet. People will have to adapt to a warming climate in which extreme events are more likely and learn how to mitigate their impact.

Annalisa Bracco, Professor of Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.